RICARDO'S BUSINESS || A$ > Record vs Euro and to stay strong

There's growing evidence the Australian dollar will continue to stay strong as it hits yet another record against the Euro.

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Overnight, it rose to just over 80 euro cents despite some generally poor news coming out of Europe.

Traditionally, the Aussie has been seen as what's called a risk asset, an investment class or currency that is greatly affected by changes in credit quality and interest rates. So in the past, whenever the global economy was strong, the Australian dollar would rise because international investors would be more averse to risk, so they'd buy the Australian dollar. But when things aren't looking good globally, the Australian dollar is sold.

But that hasn't been the trend recently.

Over the past few years, what's been driving our local currency is the commodities boom.

To explain it simply, as China and the rest of the world demand more of our resources like iron ore, they buy Australian dollars to pay for those materials. The more demand, the less Aussie dollars in circulation, so the higher the value of our currency.

Furthermore, Australia has one of the highest interest rates in the industrialised world, so naturally, international investors would get a higher return for buying our currency.

The other factor coming into play here is the relative weakness of the greenback and now the Euro.

Overnight the Euro fell to its lowest point in 16 months against the greenback after France's borrowing costs rose at an auction, proving to be a bad omen for Spain and Italy who will sell bonds next week. There are fears that borrowing costs will rise again amid declining consumer confidence in the Eurozone.

That should have sent investors fleeing, and selling the Australian dollar because it's further bad news for global growth.

But the Aussie hit a fresh high against the Euro, and even the New Zealand dollar is currently trading at a five- month high against the Euro.

So what's the significance of this?

Firstly, it shows that there's an exodus of investors from the Euro currency. They traditionally buy other 'safe' currencies like the greenback and Yen. But confidence has been rattled so much that investors are looking for alternate investments, and it seems like the Australian dollar is one of those, as it goes from strength to strength across a number of denominations.

Also supporting Australia's economy are unjustified fears of a hard landing of the Chinese economy. Recent data shows its economic slowdown doesn't look to be as rough as first thought. On top of that, China's central bank has provided the markets with assurance that it stands ready to ease monetary policy if needed.

So it seems international investors are placing the Aussie in that basket of 'safe' currencies that it was once excluded from.

And while the surge in the Aussie versus the Euro hasn't been as impressive as the greenback, it's still significant.

In 2009 one Aussie dollar bought 60 US cent at its peak late last year, the Aussie surged to US$1.10.

In 2009 one Aussie dollar bought 47 euro cents. Today it buys 80.

It may be a good time to start planning a European holiday, but on the cautious side, be aware of crime if you're going overseas.

Unemployment in Spain for example is at more than 22 per cent. That means more than 1 in 5 people have no job, and generally, the higher the jobless rate, the more crime.


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4 min read

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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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