RICARDO'S BUSINESS || ANZ > Friday rates decision

The Reserve Bank's November interest rate cut has encouraged one of Australia's struggling sectors, but not another.

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Most of that activity was driven a near 23 per cent rise in New South Wales and 11.6 per cent increase in detached house sales in Victoria.

That's good news because the gap between housing supply and demand in Australia continues to widen.

While the Housing Industry Association's Harley Dale said the overall result was healthier than expected, he maintains there is still a long way to go to restore new home sales volumes to acceptable levels.

Further interest rate cuts, which the market is anticipating, may promote housing activity, and it may also lift the struggling retail sector.

Official data today, shows retail trade rose by less than 0.1 per cent in November, despite the RBA's interest rate cut in that month.

Non- food retailing was flat, although there were increases in the purchase of sporting goods, toys and entertainment goods, along with liquor.

Granted, it does takes months for any impact in interest rate cuts to flow through to the consumer, the issue is, that many borrowers often don't change their spending habits despite an official cut in rates.

What they often do, is maintain their repayment levels on their home loan.

While the anecdotal evidence shows the post- Christmas sales have been healthy, we'll have to wait until March to see the official data on the January sales, unless retailers like David Jones and Myer give investors a glimpse at their sales books before then.

Today's numbers may be enough to encourage the Reserve Board to cut interest rates once again when it meets for the first time this year on February the 7th. CommSec for one says the latest data keeps a rate cut on the table next month.

But what will be even more interesting will be ANZ's first independent announcement on its interest rates this Friday.

Remember, last month, the bank announced that it would reveal its intentions on interest rates, on the second Friday of every month, whether or not the RBA moves.

An ANZ spokesperson told me today, that an announcement will be made at some point on Friday, even though the RBA isn't meeting today, and even if it doesn't move, any commentary, especially on wholesale funding costs will be closely watched.




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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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