S&P backs budget, consumers uninspired

Standard & Poor's has confirmed Australia's triple-A rating after last week's budget, but consumers were unimpressed by the government's statement.

Treasurer Scott Morrison can breathe a sigh of relief after a global credit rating agency gave Australia a tick of approval to retain its triple-A rating after last week's budget.

As important as it was that other agencies - Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings - were quick to give the budget the nod last week, S&P was the only one that has Australia on a negative outlook, a view it retains.

"The negative outlook on Australia reflects our view that if downside risks to government revenue materialise, then budget deficits could persist for several years with little improvement unless the parliament implements more forceful fiscal policy decisions," it says.

Small businesses also gave their approval to Mr Morrison's second budget, but it has failed to lift the spirits of consumers, who are being dogged by persistently small wage rises.

New figures show wages grew by just 0.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, keeping the annual rate at a record low 1.9 per cent and now below the inflation rate of 2.1 per cent.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy expects wage growth to remain "unimpressive" for some time yet given significant slack remains in the labour market.

Unions pounced on the figures, saying they "crushed" the government's optimistic assumptions made in the budget that wage growth will somehow recover to 3.75 per cent by mid-2021.

"The pay packets of Australians are shrinking and are not keeping up with the cost of living," ACTU president Sally McManus said.

Little wonder consumer confidence remains under a cloud, gaining little inspiration from the budget.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 1.1 per cent to 98.0 in May and found just seven per cent expecting their family finances will improve as a result of the budget.

The weekly consumer confidence index released on Tuesday fell 2.6 per cent and to its lowest level since September 2015.

It followed opinion polls showing voters believe they will be worse off because of its measures, despite backing initiatives like the levy on the big banks and the new school funding program.

However, almost two-thirds of small businesses have welcomed the Turnbull government's decision to keep the $20,000 instant asset write-off for a further year for businesses with a turnover up to $10 million.

Overall, a survey by business software provider MYOB found just 16 per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises rated Treasurer Scott Morrison's second budget negatively.

Almost half backed the government's decision to stick with its 10-year business tax plan, followed by just under a third supporting the budget's infrastructure spending.

"Considering that ahead of the budget 43 per cent of small business owners weren't confident it would deliver a positive outcome, it appears that policies like the tax write-off extension and company tax cuts have turned this sentiment around," MYOB chief executive Tim Reed said.


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Source: AAP


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