SA election outcome is anyone's guess

If you've got a crystal ball lying around, dust it off because it's your best chance of picking the outcome of South Australia's March election.

Safe to say, there's never been a poll quite like this one and if anyone suggests they've got a firm handle on how things will play out - tell 'em they're dreamin'.

For the first time in many, many elections, voters next month will be faced with a genuine three-way contest where MPs in even the safest of seats are nervous about their prospects.

And it's not just the entry of Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST party into the fray that is causing such uncertainty.

There are a range of other factors, including a major redistribution of electoral boundaries, a swag of retirements and the chances of a bunch of independents, that have political pundits scratching their heads.

Even the Trump-esque spectre of fake news has raised its ugly head with a dodgy website posting clearly bogus claims about a number of candidates.

And even before the election is officially called, there have been allegations of backroom deals and threats of legal action.

So, let's paint the picture for you.

First, there's the incumbent Labor government that probably doesn't deserve to win, but just might.

Then there's a Liberal opposition that really should win but possibly won't.

And finally, there's Mr Xenophon, who many people hope will win, but who says he doesn't want to.

Are you still with me?

It all presents a confusing picture of what might happen, both on election night on March 17, and in the days and possibly weeks that follow as deals are done for someone to finally secure power.

Labor Premier Jay Weatherill, whose party is shooting for a record fifth straight term, has not ruled out doing a deal with anyone to form government.

Liberal leader Steven Marshall has ruled out a coalition with SA-BEST.

But Mr Xenophon says his door will always be open to anyone who wants to come calling with a proposal.

He's hotly favoured to win the seat he's contesting in Adelaide's northeast but it remains unclear just how many of his 30 or so candidates will be joining him.

Mr Xenophon says he doesn't want to be a deputy premier or a minister in any type of coalition administration and only wants his party to hold the balance of power.

But it's not totally out of the question he could be the premier himself if enough of his candidates get up and he has the most seats to deal with.

So, realistically, how could things play out?

With the redistribution turning some Labor-held seats into marginal Liberal electorates, the best Mr Weatherill can probably hope for is to form a minority government with the backing of SA-BEST and other independents.

Should Labor get a caning at the ballot box, then it's still possible Mr Marshall could find himself with a slim, but workable majority.

An SA-BEST government seems the least likely outcome, but who knows.

Some recent opinion polls have the party securing the biggest percentage of first-preference votes in a number of key seats, and have Mr Xenophon well ahead as preferred premier.

Other polls put support for the former senator's outfit at a probably more realistic 19 to 20 per cent, a level that could result in many of his candidates just falling short.

But if voters are confused and a little unsure, they're not alone.

Some of the state's leading political analysts also appear stumped by what's about to unfold.

They question if Mr Marshall has done enough to convince voters to back a change in government and counsel against underestimating Labor's ability to shore up votes in marginal seats.

And they're not totally convinced voters will turn to SA-BEST in big numbers.

As one told AAP, even that crystal ball is looking very murky.