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Scottish leader eyes independence boost

Scotland's ruling party hopes next week's British general election will boost its hopes of full Scottish independence - which could be put to a referendum as early as this year.

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4 min read

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Source: AFP, SBS


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First Minister Alex Salmond wants his Scottish National Party (SNP) to nearly treble its number of Westminster lawmakers from seven to 20, and says doing so would help him score concessions in a possible hung parliament.

"Hopefully the general election level of support will enable us to galvanise our argument, get that referendum bill through and let the Scottish people have a say over their own future," said Salmond.

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But even if there is no clear majority, Salmond faces obstacles including uncertain public support for independence, which some opinion polls suggest has fallen since the global economic crisis.

Many in the main British parties are also to reluctant to work with a man they have nicknamed "Alex In Wonderland".

Minnows in London despite holding power in Edinburgh, the SNP could benefit from either of what polls suggest are the two most likely scenarios - a win for the opposition Conservatives, led by David Cameron, or a hung parliament.

SNP against coalition

The party hopes a Tory win "would reawaken memories for people of how things were perceived to be in the 1980s in Scotland under Margaret Thatcher," said author David Torrance, who is writing a biography of Salmond.

Conservative ex-premier Thatcher is still a highly controversial figure in Scotland 20 years after she left office because of claims her programme of economic liberalisation had a disproportionate negative impact here.

In the event of Westminster being left, in Salmond's words, "hung by a Scottish rope," he hopes to secure concessions like greater financial powers for the Scottish parliament and protect Scotland from public sector cuts.

Salmond's deputy Nicola Sturgeon, on the campaign trail in Falkirk, central Scotland, said while the SNP would not join a coalition in the event of a hung parliament, there could be more piecemeal arrangements.

"The polls are all suggesting that a balanced parliament is a very real possibility. In that scenario, the SNP will wield massive influence on behalf of Scotland," she said.

"There will be no coalition and no post-election pact between the SNP and any of the UK parties. We'll vote in Scotland's interests and we'll make our decisions on an issue-by-issue basis and that gives Scotland massive clout."

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives, the two biggest parties, seem keen to work with the SNP - Cameron has said he would "never do anything to put at risk our United Kingdom".

Impact of financial crisis

And Torrance said that even in the event of a hung parliament, there might not be time for Salmond to secure his desired concessions before another poll which could be held within months in a bid to secure a clear outcome.

Meanwhile, there are some signs that support for Scottish independence may have been hit by the world financial crisis, which had a major impact on Scotland's large financial services sector.

A YouGov/Daily Telegraph poll in March found 55 per cent of Scots would vote against independence and 27 per cent would vote in favour.

Many voters on the street of Falkirk seemed to share this view.

"Staying in the union is the best way to go," said Denis Johnstone, a 24-year-old unemployed electrician, while insisting he was "patriotic" for Scotland.

Archie Wilson, 70, also said the credit crunch had underlined the need for Scotland to be part of the union.

"To break up, for us to go alone, that would be the downfall of the British empire," he said. "Britain will need to stick together... if we didn't, it's bye bye to everything".


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