The election result could come down to just a few seats.
FRANKLIN (south). Labor is expected to lose two seats to Liberal after a redistribution and two ineffective "count back" MPs replacing unpopular former premier Paul Lennon and sacked minister Paula Wreidt. Likely outcome: Lib3/Lab1/Grn1.
BRADDON (northwest). Labor tipped to lose one seat to Greens and one seat to Liberal after sacked former deputy premier Steve Kons quit and a struggling term by Brenton Best. Likely outcome: Libs3/Lab1/Grn1.
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LYONS (central/east). Labor to lose one seat to Liberal, farewelling underperfoming MP Heather Butler while minister David Llewellyn hangs on and speaker Michael Polley is returned for an 11th successive term. Likely outcome: Libs2/Lab2/Grn1.
DENISON (Hobart). Labor to lose one seat to Greens, completing a two-seat Greens' gain confirming Denison as Australia's "Greenest" electorate; and one seat to the Liberal, losing bumbling ministers Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturgess. Likely outcome: Lib2/Grn2/Lab1.
BASS (northeast). Labor to lose one seat to Liberal after the retirement of popular minister Jim Cox. Likely outcome: Lib3/Lab2/Grn1.
