Spending to get boost from RBA, not budget

This week's federal budget is unlikely to boost retail spending, but the interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank certainly will.

Australian currency

This week's federal budget is unlikely to boost retail spending, but the interest rate cut will. (AAP)

For all the of pre-budget jitters weighing on consumer confidence in recent weeks, the federal government's annual financial statement is unlikely to have much impact on retail spending.

While there have been months of debate over taxation issues, Tuesday's budget was generally neutral for household spending, Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist Michael Workman believes.

The government's modest change to personal income tax brackets to prevent middle-income earners being hit by bracket creep - where workers are pushed into a higher tax bracket through wage inflation - works out to around $5 per week and applies to only one in five employees.

However, the Reserve Bank's cut in the cash rate to a record low 1.75 per cent should be a positive for future spending.

"We expect another RBA rate cut in coming months which should also lift household discretionary incomes," Mr Workman said.

New figures on Thursday showed retail spending grew by 0.4 per cent to $24.9 billion in March, a little faster than the previous month.

However, over the March quarter sales grew by just 0.5 per cent and slower than the previous three months.

While a disappointing result, National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland doubted it will have a material impact on March quarter economic growth figures due on June 1.

That will be during the heat of the election campaign in the run-up to the July 2 polling day.

Newly-released monthly international trade figures suggest that over the quarter exports will add a solid 0.7 percentage points to growth, resulting in an overall GDP outcome of at least 0.6 per cent for the quarter.

However, that would see the annual rate slip from three per cent as of the end of the December.

That's not unexpected with Treasurer Scott Morrison forecasting growth of 2.5 per cent for this financial year and the next.

Other data showed new home sales jumped by 8.9 per cent in March, rebounding after the sharp 5.3 per cent decline in April.

"Tuesday's cut to the official cash rate will also provide additional support to the residential construction sector," Housing Industry Association economist Diwa Hopkins said.

New research by global rating agency Moody's Investors Service says housing affordability may have improved in Sydney and Melbourne with repayment costs easing on the back of a pullback in prices.

"We expect that affordability in these two cities will improve over 2016," Moody's analyst Natsumi Matsuda said.

Housing affordability deteriorated in all capital cities except Perth over the past year, meaning homeowners have to spend a larger proportion of their income on monthly mortgage repayments.

However, the ratings agency says conditions began to improve in the March quarter.


Share
3 min read

Published

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world