Tasmanians go to the polls this month with no clear standout to take the reins of power, but the Liberals appear to be edging ahead with an electorate weary of scandals, bungles and apologies.
Tasmania has a different voting system to the mainland, with five electorates each returning five MPs to the state's 25-member lower house, where 13 seats make a majority government.
Heading into the March 20 election, Labor holds 14 seats, the Liberals seven and the Greens four, under the Hare-Clark system of proportional representation.
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The latest opinion poll, last week, shows the Liberals steering a precarious minority government with 11 seats, while Labor being reduced to eight and the Greens adding two to secure six seats.
Much of electorate undecided
But that's not accounting for almost a quarter of the electorate, 23 per cent, which is undecided after 12 years of Labor government and wary of the Greens becoming kingmakers in a minority government.
If the prevailing swing against Labor is indication of the direction of those undecided votes then the Greens will gain but the Liberals will go close to winning 13 seats for a majority.
Both parties pretty much agree that 10 to 15 per cent of people vote just for a majority result, going with the swing, to avoid minority governments.
What may get the Liberals over the line is the very real prospect of voters having to return soon to the polls if any of the various uncertain minority government scenarios fails.
A second election is expected to only favour the Liberals with voters legging them up to a majority to avoid further instability.
Bartlett faces big challenge
That prospect of instability geared with the expected flow of undecided voters should just be enough to get the Liberals home with 13 seats in what will be called a landslide, despite the small size of the overall vote.
Premier David Bartlett has for the past 20 months led a Labor outfit that's been in power for 12 years, seeking a fourth consecutive term despite scandals, bungles, disgraces, apologies and persistent claims of corruption.
The government's record is the primary election issue and should, barring a disaster, be enough for a Labor-weary electorate to give government to an unsoiled, credible alternative, continuing the inevitable turnabout between the major parties in Australian politics.
The final result in a Labor wipeout will be Liberals 13 seats, Labor six and Greens six.
