The relationship between jobs and shares

Tomorrow we'll get the official jobs report from the Bureau of Statistics which is closely watched by the Reserve Bank board.

That's because it's a key factor used to judge the health of the Australian economy when making a decision on interest rates.



The current unemployment rate stands at 5.2 per cent, but an AAP survey earlier this week, revealed a median forecast to increase 0.2 percentage points to 5.4 per cent.

Also backing up a potential rise in the jobless rate is this week's ANZ job ads series which fell to their lowest level in three years.

This survey measures the number of job ads in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet.

It basically shows that either more employers are hiring without having to advertise or that there are fewer available positions to advertise for.

There is also a curious historical relationship with the ANZ Job Ad series and the Australian sharemarket.

The All Ords rose around 10 per cent in back end of last year.

When you place the two charts on top of each other, you can see that the two lines virtually track each other except over the past few months.

So for things to fall back into line historically, job ads will have to climb or the sharemarket will have to fall.

In a tweet dated 15th January CommSec posted “More employers hiring directly, affecting job ads predictive ability. But doubts also whether sharemarket gains will be sustained.”

The official labour market report will be out 1130 eastern daylight time on Thursday morning.


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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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The relationship between jobs and shares | SBS News