A GLANCE AT THE FATE OF RECENT AFL MINOR PREMIERS WITH ONLY TWO OF THE PAST 10 GOING ON TO WIN THE FLAG:
2017: Minor premier: Adelaide. Premier: Richmond (from third place)
The Crows waltzed into the grand final with big wins - a 36-point triumph against GWS in a qualifying final, followed by a 59-point belting of Geelong in a preliminary final. But the hot flag favourites melted in the grand final against Richmond, suffering stage-fright and slumping to an eight-goal loss.
2016: Minor premier: Sydney. Premier: Western Bulldogs (from seventh place)
The Swans were trounced by GWS by six goals in a qualifying final but recovered to bank convincing wins in a semi-final (beating Adelaide by 36 points) and a preliminary final (defeating Geelong by 37 points). But Sydney were overwhelmed by the fast-finishing Dogs in the grand final, losing by 22 points.
2015: Minor premier: Fremantle: Premier: Hawthorn (from third place)
The Dockers didn't even reach the grand final after finishing top. Freo overcame Sydney by nine points in a qualifying final but were outplayed by eventual premier Hawthorn in a 27-point loss in a preliminary final.
2014: Minor premier: Sydney. Premier: Hawthorn (from second place)
The Swans cruised through their initial two finals, accounting for Fremantle by four goals in a qualifying final, then thrashing North Melbourne by 71 points in a preliminary final. But Sydney were never really in the hunt in the grand final when trounced by Hawthorn by 63 points.
2013: Minor premier: Hawthorn. Premier: Hawthorn
The Hawks claimed the first of three consecutive flags after an all-conquering run through the finals: a 54-point qualifying win against Sydney and a thrilling five-point preliminary triumph over Geelong followed by a 15-point grand final victory against Fremantle.
2012: Minor premier: Hawthorn: Premier: Sydney (from third place)
The Hawks eclipsed Collingwood by 38 points in a qualifying final and then slipped past Adelaide by five points in a tense preliminary final, but lost the grand final when the Swans kicked four goals to two in the last quarter for a 10-point premiership win.
2011: Minor premier: Collingwood. Premier: Geelong (from second place)
The Magpies completed the home-and-away season with 20 wins and two losses, then downed West Coast by 20 points in a qualifying final and held their nerve in a classic preliminary final against Hawthorn for a three-point victory. But Collingwood were steamrolled by Geelong in the last term of the grand final when the Cats kicked 5.4 to just three points to win by 38 points.
2010: Minor premier: Collingwood. Premier: Collingwood
The Magpies breezed into the grand final with commanding triumphs in a qualifying final (beating Western Bulldogs by 62 points) and a preliminary final (defeating Geelong by 41). They drew the grand final against St Kilda before returning a week later to win the replay by 56 points.
2009: Minor premier: St Kilda. Premier: Geelong (from second place)
The Saints lost just twice in the home-and-away season and booked a grand final berth with a 28-point win against Collingwood in a qualifying final and seven-point preliminary final victory against Western Bulldogs. But in the premiership decider, the Saints coughed up a seven-point three quarter-time lead against Geelong to lose by 12.
2008: Minor premier: Geelong. Premier: Hawthorn (from second place)
The Cats breezed through with a 58-point qualifying final thrashing of St Kilda and 29-point preliminary final win against Western Bulldogs. But Hawthorn claimed the premiership with a 26-point triumph - Geelong kicked 11.23 with 11 of their points rushed.
