Climate change could take the US navy into treacherous waters. It will have to raise its game in a thawing Arctic and prepare coastal bases to cope with rising sea levels, concludes a review carried out for the navy by the National Research Council (NRC).
The US Congress may still question the science of climate change, but the Pentagon already thinks a changing climate will be a significant influence on the future security environment. It said as much in last year's Quadrennial Defence Review Report.
In 2009, chief of naval operations Gary Roughead commissioned the NRC to study the national security implications of climate change for the US navy. The results of that study, published today, conclude that the Arctic is a key challenge for the US – one of five countries with territory inside the Arctic circle.
In 2007, the fabled Northwest Passage along Canada and Alaska opened for the first time as a result of retreating sea ice. It is expected to become navigable – albeit probably still dangerous – by 2030. That will open the region to shipping, tourists and the exploitation of rich natural resources.
Maritime boundaries that determine who controls resources are already in dispute in the area. "The possibility of conflict is low, but it is still real," says the NRC panel co-chair Antonio Busalacchi at the University of Maryland in College Park. That makes the presence of the US navy or coastguard desirable to support the nation's interests and protect its citizens in the area.
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Cold case
Yet the US has largely ignored the inhospitable Arctic in the two decades since the end of the cold war. "As a nation, we've lost some of our experience and edge in cold regions," says Busalacchi. Special equipment and training are? needed for Arctic operations: for instance, communication links degrade because areas north of the Arctic circle are out of normal range of the satellites in geosynchronous orbit that the navy uses. The US now has just three icebreakers – and two of them are over 30 years old. Of the other four nations with Arctic territory, Russia has 18 icebreakers, Finland and Sweden have seven each, and Canada has six.
To address these problems, the NRC panel urges the navy to build partnerships with other countries operating in the Arctic and to develop new navigation and communications techniques.
The sea-level rises predicted to follow global warming also pose a direct threat to naval facilities, most of which, obviously, lie along coasts. A survey for last year's quadrennial review found that 56 of the 103 navy bases that responded would be vulnerable to a 1-metre rise in sea level, which the panel considers likely by the end of this century. The report says these facilities are worth about $100 billion, and encourages the navy to identify which are at most risk from storm surges and sea-level rise, take steps to defend them, and develop models to predict future risks.
