Vic MP's fate could spark fresh election

The charging of balance-of-power independent MP Geoff Shaw could cause a constitutional crisis. Or not much at all.

The Frankston MP is facing 24 offences carrying up to 10 years jail, for allegedly misusing his taxpayer funded vehicle for his hardware business.

Under Victorian law, anyone convicted of a crime carrying a penalty of more than five years' jail is ineligible to be an MP.

So if Mr Shaw is convicted, he would have to quit parliament, forcing a by-election in his seat which the former Liberal holds by a two per cent margin.

But the potentially slow-turning wheels of justice may mean that a by-election won't be necessary given the next general election is due in November next year.

According to Monash University politics expert Dr Nick Economou, there is precedent for letting a seat stay vacant rather than spark a by-election if there is only two or three months to go before the polls.

Such a scenario would work in the government's favour.

There are 43 Labor MPs, 44 Coalition MPs, including the speaker, and Mr Shaw who make up the parliament.

If Labor were to win a by-election, the lower house would be tied, potentially triggering a general election.

"The first stage in that government would have to be whether or not they could select a speaker," Dr Economou says.

"If they couldn't, then there'd be a crisis because the constitution says a legislative assembly can't run if there's no speaker.

"Presumably the governor would have to intervene, dissolve the government and we'd have to have fresh elections."

But Dr Economou doubts it will get to that.

"Shaw is not going to resign. He's got a QC. The QC will stretch out the process as long as he possibly can," he says.

"The chances are that the next general election would occur before there was any possibility of Shaw being disqualified from parliament."

In that case his fate may lay with the voters of Frankston before it is decided by a court.