Bill Shorten has out-campaigned the Turnbull team with his bus and '100 positive policies' but it may not be enough come voting day.
The signs are that Labor is getting a swing towards it but the swing is too low to secure victory.
The Party will launch its campaign this weekend in Penrith, hoping the event will make a difference as the campaign moves to the final stages.
Former Labor press secretary Greg Turnbull hopes for a Labor victory but fears it isn’t possible.
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Press Secretary to Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating and Opposition leader Kim Beazley, Greg Turnbull believes that Bill Shorten has run a good campaign but it may not end up winning.
“There is a sense that Labor’s long haul campaign could be running out of puff," he said.
“They need something to reignite the belief they can win enough seats. There is a certain air of pessimism that it might be a few seats too many that are required,” Greg Turnbull told SBS.
Politics lecturer Dr Nick Economou from Monash University believes Bill Shorten has won the election campaign ‘hands down’ but thinks that the swing against the Government isn't big enough and that there isn't a widespread move for change across the country.
“Labor and Bill Shorten have run a pretty good campaign,” Dr Economou told SBS.
“Presumably at the campaign launch they will try to emphasise the points they have made on health and education.”
“The problem is that there will probably be a swing to Labor on election day but it may not be in the marginal seats that count,” Dr Economou said.
Labor needs around 21 seats to secure victory. It lost Government in a landslide to Tony Abbott in 2013.
The campaign launch this weekend will take place in Penrith in the marginal Liberal-held Sydney seat of Lindsay.
This is a seat Labor would hope to win. Created in 1984, Lindsay stretches from the outer suburbs of Sydney from St Marys to Penrith and Emu Plains, from Londonderry in the north to parts of Badgerys Creek in the south. It is an outer metropolitan seat but with agricultural and farming land around parts of it.
Lindsay has had high-profile members over the years.
Its first MP in 1984 was Labor MP and later Minister Ross Free who moved from the nearby seat of Macquarie after an unfavorable redistribution. It was won by Liberal Jackie Kelly in 1996 when John Howard won Government. She went onto becoming a Howard Government minister. Since then, it has been in Labor and Liberal hands. Current MP Liberal Fiona Scott won it in 2013.
Labor was hoping to pick up several Sydney seats it had lost in 2013 including the seats of Reid and Banks that are nearer to the CBD. Those seats remain close but while Labor campaigning has gone well, Liberal candidates seem to be holding.
Over the last six weeks, Bill Shorten has been promoting the ideas Labor has been rolling out for 18 months.
At the campaign launch he will emphasise Labor’s “100 positive policies”.
Labor has divided its plans into 6 categories: Medicare, education, multinational tax avoidance, penalty rates, climate change and affordable housing.
The campaign mantra is “Bill Shorten and Labor: we’ll put people first.”
Greg Turnbull says Labor has performed well this year.
“Observers would have to give credit to Labor for a policy focused campaign. The saying goes 'good policy is good politics'” he says.
Labor’s affordable housing campaign is about its plan to cut back on negative gearing tax concessions. Labor says negative gearing is distorting the housing market.
If Labor won the election, it would limit negative gearing to new housing, and halve the capital gains tax discount from July 2017.
Greg Turnbull believes it is a good policy.
“I personally believe the negative gearing policy is well designed and I believe it is well supported amongst younger voters.”
Nick Economou was critical of Labor’s policy on negative gearing feeling it would be a net negative for Labor.
Now he has told SBS he believes the policy has been lost a bit during the campaign.
“Labor has struggled with negative gearing and the coalition has struggled on superannuation” Dr Economou said.
Labor has been under siege from the Greens in inner city seats in this campaign. The Greens are taking votes from Labor and looking to expand their lower house seats from the one it currently holds. Adam Bandt won the seat of Melbourne from retiring Labor Minister Lindsey Tanner in 2010.
Nick Economou believes in the end the Greens may just pick up Batman in Melbourne but says they have caused Labor plenty of problems. He says the Government’s preference deal putting Labor ahead of the Greens is important.
“Labor has been greatly helped by Liberal party’s decision to give Labor second preference ahead of Greens” Dr Economou told SBS.
After the launch on Sunday, there will be two weeks of campaigning remaining.
