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Voters to spark another upset for markets

Financial markets hate uncertainty and this weekend's election has provided that in spades with the result too close to call.

A protester wearing a giant puppet head depicting Malcolm Turnbull
Labor's Medicare attack overshadowed the coalition's campaign based on economic management. (AAP)

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Source: AAP


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Hang on to your hats, financial markets are in for another rough ride.

Investors can expect shares and the Australian dollar to suffer a knee-jerk jolt on Monday from the worst possible outcome to the federal election - a hung parliament.

It follows a week of global market instability following the shock decision by Britain to leave the European Union last month.

"It's not good," Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas told AAP on Sunday.

Markets hate uncertainty, and while Koukoulas expects Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to "cobble together" some sort of government, he says there is still a risk of the country needing to go back to the polls.

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At this stage the coalition appears to have 72 of the 150 lower house seats, Labor 67, the Greens 1 and independents 4, while another six seats are in doubt.

Counting of votes will resume on Tuesday.

More troubling is the Senate. It looks like being even more fractious with the likes of the Pauline Hanson's One Nation taking two seats.

With 10 crossbenchers in place, getting government legislation through parliament won't be an easy task for the new government.

"This hotch-potch is bad for policy reform and that's a problem," Koukoulas said.

"The markets can see that and they won't like it."

One worry will be the response of global credit rating agencies in the face of a budget surplus possibly being kicked further down the road as the result of the election outcome, putting Australia's triple-A rating at risk.

Mr Turnbull avoided saying what impact the inconclusive result could have on the rating.

"What we will do is ensure that we work constructively and effectively with all of the members of the new parliament to ensure that we deliver the stability and the leadership that Australians expect," he told reporters in Sydney.

But Labor Leader Bill Shorten said Mr Turnbull is seriously out of touch.

"His agenda reflected that," he told reporters in Melbourne.

Standard & Poor's is due to respond to Treasurer Scott Morrison's May 3 budget later in July.

"I think a negative watch is pretty much a done deal," Koukoulas said, meaning the government would have a year to make meaningful budget changes to prevent the rating being cut.

Business tax cuts, the centrepiece of the Turnbull government's budget and election campaign, now look unlikely even if the coalition scrapes back.

Gone is reinstatement of the Australian Building and Construction Commission getting through - the whole premise for double-dissolution election.

Business Council of Australia head Jennifer Westacott said all parties must focus on improving living standards through a strong and growing economy.

"Australians and Australian business can ill-afford gridlock, recriminations or in-fighting," she said.


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