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Wage growth remains sub-two per cent

Wage growth remains below two per cent and only just above inflation, while construction work has failed to produce an expected rebound.

At least wages growth hasn't got any worse.

But new figures show pay packets are still growing at just below two per cent a year, the slowest in at least two decades.

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe expects wage increases are likely to remain below average for some time yet.

"Our liaison with businesses does not suggest that a pick-up in wage growth is imminent, but nor does it suggest that a further slowing is in prospect," Dr Lowe told a breakfast conference in Sydney on Wednesday.

Those views fitted in with the subsequent release of the latest wage price index - the central bank's preferred measure of wages growth - which rose 0.5 per cent in the December quarter, a fraction higher than that seen in the previous three months.

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However, it still left growth at 1.9 per cent and only just ahead of inflation at 1.5 per cent.

Furthermore, the breakdown of the figures may have left Dr Lowe a little disappointed.

Private sector wage growth rose by a more anaemic 0.4 per cent in the quarter for 1.8 per cent annually, the weakest since the Australian Bureau of Statistics began the series in the late 1990s.

The minutes of the Reserve Bank's February board meeting earlier warned subdued growth in household income was likely to constrain spending.

Other figures released on Wednesday were equally underwhelming and a potential dampener on the expected rebound in economic growth when the national accounts are release next week.

Construction work completed in the December quarter eased 0.2 per cent, when economists had expected a modest 0.5 per cent rise.

The decline followed a more substantial 4.4 per cent drop in the September quarter.

Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said the result was not greatly different from what he was expecting and is sticking with his forecast for a 0.4 per cent rise in economic growth for the December quarter national accounts for an annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent.

This follows the shock 0.5 per cent growth contraction in the September quarter, the worst since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

However, JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman has shaved his quarterly growth forecast from 0.9 per cent from 0.7 per cent following the construction figures.

Economists will finalise their forecasts for December quarter growth over the coming days as a series of figures are released, with capital expenditure numbers due on Thursday, while company profits, business inventories and international trade data are due early next week.

Dr Lowe remains confident economic growth will rebound to around three per cent over the next couple of years, although he anticipates the jobless rate will be slow to react.

This is because some of this growth will be the result of the expansion of LNG production, which does not employ that many people, he said.


3 min read

Published

Source: AAP



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