We ain't seen nothing yet: climate adviser

As if Cyclone Yasi wasn't frightening enough, the federal government's top climate adviser says we ain't seen nothing yet.

Professor Ross Garnaut has released the first of a series of eight updates of his landmark 2008 report on climate change.

He says the odds of more extreme cyclones and bushfires are rising as greenhouse gas emissions lead to higher average temperatures across the globe.

"The science says that without mitigation and with the sorts of emissions growth that my analysis shows will follow from the industrialisation of China and India and Indonesia, and the acceleration of economic growth in Africa, then that first degree (of warming) is just the beginning," Prof Garnaut said.

"And so, if we are seeing an intensification of extreme weather events now, you ain't seen nothing yet."

He told reporters in Canberra that climate change had already imposed "substantial costs" on Australia, and the rising burden made investing in mitigation measures more urgent.

"The principles of prudent risk management dictate that the case for action is strengthened, rather than diminished, by the fact that outcomes could turn out far worse (or better) than we expect," he said.

"With strong mitigation, we at least rule out, or reduce to low probabilities, the potential for catastrophe."

Prof Garnaut is advising the Gillard government and the multi-party climate change committee on a carbon price mechanism, with the aim of legislation being introduced by the year's end.

In his original report, Prof Garnaut favoured the idea of putting a price on carbon as an initial response, followed by an emissions trading scheme which could link into a global carbon market.

Prof Garnaut said that while his updated report on carbon pricing was another six weeks away, he still saw merit in the original idea.

"I thought a fair bit before putting that in the report last time, so I can't pretend that I still don't see some advantages in it," he said.

But, he said, his aim was to ensure that the final model was not only one that could pass a vote in parliament but was understood well enough in the community to endure.

"Australia's placing a lot of cost to the future on itself by not making a start ... with a carbon price," he said.

Prof Garnaut said he understood concerns about the possible impact of a carbon price on electricity prices.

"It's important for our community to understand what proportion of electricity prices will be associated with a carbon price - it's not very big," he said.

"Lots of other things are driving up electricity prices."

He said the government could cushion the blow by returning to taxpayers some of the money it made from selling emission permits.

This could be done without reducing incentives for individuals to save electricity or the big power generators from moving from high to low carbon sources of electricity.

In other reports to be published, Prof Garnaut will review global action on climate change, emission trends, rural land use, climate science, low-emissions technology and the electricity sector.