in brief
- The Lithuanian prime minister has said his country is prepared to repel a potential Russian invasion.
- The Baltic NATO country has been rapidly building its defences since 2022.
Lithuania is increasingly concerned about Russian aggression, with Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius saying his country is ready to "fight back" if attacked.
Speaking to the BBC's Newsnight program, the centre-left leader who came to power in July said the country "will not surrender" to its neighbour and former occupier.
"We will fight back," he said. "We will engage if we're attacked. We will not surrender."
Lithuania is a NATO member and a key frontline country on Russia's border in the Baltic. An attack on its territory would trigger a response from all members, including the nuclear-armed United Kingdom, United States, and France.
The country has been rapidly building up its military capabilities since the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and NATO allies have been stationing troops in the country as further deterrence against an attack.
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Germany recently announced that 5,000 troops would remain permanently in the country, a major shift from the usual rotation of soldiers, while the US confirmed a new rotation would also soon arrive.
Seven in 10 Lithuanians say Russia is a direct security threat, and 90 per cent support the NATO alliance, according to local polling.
War taking a toll
The fighting between Russia and Ukraine, which has been intensifying in recent months, appears to be spilling over into Lithuania and its neighbours as Ukraine hits Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports.
Last week, a NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace that is believed to have come from Belarus, a crucial Russian proxy state.
Sinkevičius said his people were living under constant threat and the situation on the ground was tense.
"The emotional state is not very good. We're constantly threatened by drones entering our airspace," he said.
"It's an alarming thing when, in the middle of the night, you receive an alarm ... go to the shelter," he said. "That's not a good emotional situation".
The looming Suwałki crisis
If Russia did decide to attack a NATO country, Lithuania is generally considered the place it would strike. The country's 60-100km-wide border with Poland bridges Belarus and the Russian-controlled exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.
Known as the Suwałki Gap, this narrow strip of land could be seized within a matter of hours by hostile forces invading from both sides, cutting off the Baltic states from ground reinforcements.
With talk of a looming "Suwałki crisis", the UK has recently affirmed it is ready to defend the region if necessary as part of a NATO response.
Lithuanians living beside the Russian territory — home to roughly a million Russians and potentially 100 tactical nuclear warheads — describe the region as their "dangerous neighbourhood".
"If war starts, I think we’d all be bombarded," local man Danielius Rimkus told the Chicago Sun-Times. "It's their decision if they want war or not. We're just here waiting."
Planning for attack
The incursion of military drones has caused panic in the region, with the Latvian government collapsing weeks after two stray Russian drones crashed in the country.
Finland has been forced to order 1.8 million people in the capital Helsinki to shelter underground from drone attacks.
Lithuania has responded by increasing its defence spending from around 2 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 5.38 per cent in its latest budget. Physical barriers and anti-drone systems have been installed along its borders with Russia and Belarus.
Hundreds of millions are being spent on fortifying power grids in the region, making them resistant to drone attacks and ensuring electricity will flow during a conflict.
Sinkevičius confirmed reports that evacuation plans were being drawn up, noting that the country is preparing for any eventuality.
"In case of the worst-case scenario, we have to think it over, how we will proceed and how we will logistically organise to make it smoothly, not to be stuck in a traffic jam not moving anywhere," he said.
Living beside Russia, having to fend off drone incursions, Sinkevičius said political choices become much clearer than those made in relative safety.
"When you see it, you change your mindset. What is of most importance, what's the priority, and what's not."
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