What's next for the Socceroos?

After a crushing loss to the USA, the Socceroos will have one more shot to qualify for the next round.

Despite a jubilant opener in the tournament, in its second match Australia was dominated by the Stars and Stripes. Source: AAP / Cal Sport Media / Steve Faber

In Brief:

• Australia suffered a crushing loss to the USA on Saturday, but they have one more shot.
• New tie-breaker rules could have a significant impact on who qualifies for the knockout rounds.

Socceroos and their fans around the world are reeling after a crushing loss to the USA on Saturday.

The shocking defeat began in the tenth minute with an own goal from Australia and ended with the Stars and Stripes closing in for a 2-0 win.

The result has sent Aussies careening back down to earth from the high pedestal set by the national team's 2-0 victory against Türkiye less than a week ago.

Socceroos coach Tony Popovic's selection decisions have come under scrutiny after the heartbreaking loss — Nestory Irankunda and Conor Metcalfe were benched in the opening half against the USA despite both players scoring against Türkiye in the team's opening match.

Popovic admitted the Socceroos looked "sluggish" and "heavy-legged" on Saturday, but said he didn't think the starting personnel would have made much of a difference against the USA's forceful performance.

"They were quicker, they were more powerful. They won every duel, they won every second ball, and when you do that, it makes it very difficult," he said.

But while humbling, it's far from the end for the Socceroos. Saturday's loss may mean the USA has topped Group D and will advance to the next round, the Group of 32, but Australia could still qualify with a second or third-place finish.

What's at stake in Australia's game against Paraguay?

Saturday would prove consequential not only for Australia, but also for Türkiye, which became the second nation after Haiti to be eliminated from the 2026 World Cup after it was defeated by Paraguay 0-1. After this match, Paraguay levelled up to third place, where it is now equal with Australia on three points.

Australia will play Paraguay next week at 12pm on Friday, 26 June (AEST) at Santa Clara, near San Francisco, with the Socceroos needing just a win or a draw to progress automatically in second spot.

And automatic progression to the Group of 32 in second place would see Australia compete against another runner-up team, likely in Group G. In that group, the favourite pick to win is Belgium, while New Zealand, Iran and Egypt are battling for second place.

If Australia loses against Paraguay, it can still qualify for the Round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams. This is because the top two teams from each group will advance to the Group of 32, along with the eight best third-place teams. A total of 32 teams will play in these knockout stages — you lose once, and you are out for good.

If the Socceroos made it to the Group of 32 under these conditions, their first match would be against a major group winner.

Paraguay's win cements the USA at the top of their group, a feat the team has only achieved twice, in 1930 and 2010. Australia has never topped its group.

The Group D winner will face the best third-placed team from one of five groups (Group B, E, F, I or J). They will also remain on the US West Coast, with their Round of 32 match in Santa Clara, near San Francisco.

Australia midfielder Matthew Leckie and USA defender Chris Richards wrestle for the ball in Seattle. Team USA defeated Australia 2-0, but it's far from Australia's last shot at the cup. Source: AAP / Cal Sport Media / Steve Faber

The runners-up will play the second-placed team from Group G (Belgium, Iran, New Zealand or Egypt) in Arlington, Texas.

For Australia to advance to the knockouts, it needs to place second in its group or be among the eight best third-place teams. It's in good standing despite the loss against the USA.

Here are the possible scenarios:

• If Australia wins against Paraguay, it will finish with six points and advance automatically as one of the top two teams in Group D.
• A draw with Paraguay would see both teams finish on four points. In this case, Australia's superior goal difference would see them advance in second place.
• If Australia loses to Paraguay, the Socceroos could still advance as a third-place team. This route would be possible with a specific set of results in the Roos' favour, possibly subject to new tiebreaker rules introduced in 2026.

New rules affecting matches

There has been a slight change to the score tables for the 2026 World Cup, which could have a significant impact on the final group matches.

For the first time, FIFA will use head-to-head scores rather than group goal difference as the primary tie-breaker for teams that are even on points.

What does this mean? To break a tie between two teams, the winning spot will go to the team that scored higher against the other, as opposed to the team with the most points overall. The change is intended to make the scoreboards fairer and discard outliers.

It's this feature that guarantees the USA will progress to the Group of 32, as it hasn't yet met its equal.

In short, for the top spot to be secured after round two, a team must have won both of their games, and the other two teams in its group must have had draws. Or, the team in first place must have beaten the team or teams on three points.

Does Australia have a shot against Paraguay?

The Socceroos' hopes for the World Cup Round of 32 could be firmed up after it was announced Paraguay's star player would not compete in the showdown between the two remaining Group D teams on Friday.

On Saturday, Paraguay's Miguel Almiron was given a red card after a bizarre verbal stoush, becoming the first player to be sent off at the World Cup for covering his mouth.

The absence of the playmaker, who plays for Major League Soccer club Atlanta United, will boost Australia's hopes of straightforward progression to the round of 32.

The inclusion of a charged-up Cristian Volpato, who wished he had declared for the Socceroos earlier, could also add a magic touch. The World Cup debutante, who replaced Mathew Leckie in the second half of the match with the USA, looked dangerous whenever he got on the ball.

— With additional reporting by the Australian Associated Press.

You can watch all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ live, free and exclusive on SBS, SBS VICELAND and SBS On Demand.

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