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What's the outlook for Australia in the Trump era?

SBS World News Radio: As the Obama era comes to an end, the world is entering uncharted waters. So what might it mean for Australia?

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What's the outlook for Australia in the Trump era? Source: AAP

5 min read

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By Kristina Zarich


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Donald Trump's career in high office, while only just beginning, is already mired in controversy and confusion but as the president-elect takes the oath of office a new kind of America is set to emerge.

In Australia it appears the only certainty is uncertainty, as Donald Trump looks set to review United States policy in almost every way; with established geo-politics, the global economy and America's role in foreign conflicts all up for debate.

Americans living in Australia have been watching the election, and its aftermath, unfold in their homeland from a safe distance on the other side of the world.

Christina Barni and Jill Berry are both American-born Australian citizens.

The reaction from their friends and family back home has been gloomy.

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"Actually watching it from here it was really disheartening. I felt like the whole campaign was so negative."

"For the first time in my life I didn't vote for either candidate and neither did my parents - and they've never done that, they've always supported either a Republican or a Democrat."

A dramatic change in US foreign policy potentially spells problems for Canberra.

Professor Bates Gill, from Australian National University, is an expert on international and Asia-Pacific security issues.

He says conflicting statements from the president-elect has created confusion over what is to come.

"He's not going to take on board policies directly associated with his predecessor. And it's also pretty clear that he is taking all sorts of unusual steps to try and reassure Russia and see what can be done to rebuild that relationship. There's real potential for differences of opinion going forward especially given the importance and long term friendship that the Australia-US relationship represents."

Australia's deep ties with the US centre around defence and were formalised after the second world war by the ANZUS treaty.

Australia has sent its soldiers to fight alongside US troops in many conflicts including Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

There is also a permanent rotation of US soldiers based in Darwin, an initiative established in 2012 by President Barack Obama.

Professor Gill says it's impossible to tell what President Trump will do.

"Statements on the international security scene have been literally all over the map. It's not clear if there is consistent line, either from himself or among his various senior cabinet-level officials."

Another key factor for Canberra is Donald Trump's stated intention to change the US relationship with China, its most fierce economic competitor and its biggest rival in the Asia-Pacific region.

While campaigning he threatened new tariffs on Chinese imports, and used some strong language in the process.

"We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism." //

"Because we cannot allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing."

There has been anger in Beijing over Trump's talk of a potential trade war, and accusations of cheating the global economy by manipulating China's currency, the yuan.

There's also speculation a Trump White House could re-evaluate the so-called 'One China' policy.

Part of that policy is a refusal to recognise Taiwan as an independent country but, rather, a part of China.

Upon winning the election, Donald Trump took a call from the Taiwanese president which alarmed mainland China.

Linda Jakobson is an expert on Chinese foreign policy and helped establish the "China Matters" organisation, which looks at the rise of China and what it means for Australia.

She says the One China Policy is at the forefront of Beijing's concerns.

"For Beijing it's of utmost importance, it relates directly to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. It is the one issue that they have said they would use military force to ensure that reunification remains, even if a very distant goal, but remains a viable option."

For Australia, the relationship between the US and China is crucial.

Australia relies on the United States for military support and protection, but relies on China for financial stability as its biggest trading partner.

Linda Jakobsen says any potential problems between the US and China means problems for Australia too.

"The more the United States and China get on with each other, the better it is for Canberra. So if there is tension, or even more than tension, if there was a clash between the two it would not be in Australia's interest."

China and Russia are expected to test the new US President in his first 100 days.

For Christina Barni, Jill Berry and other expats, all that's left to do is sit back and watch a new-look White House, and a new-look America.

"It could go really well, or it could go very poorly."

"The next four years will definitely be challenging, and definitely interesting to say the least. I hope he makes America great again, but who knows?"

 

 


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