Iraq intelligence whistleblower Andrew Wilkie is in the political spotlight once again as votes are tallied up in a pivotal seat in the Tasmanian election that could unexpectedly help Labor retain government.
The former Australian Greens federal candidate and one-time Liberal Party member ran as an independent in the Hobart seat of Denison, the results of which will be known on Wednesday.
He is the frontrunner for the fifth and final spot in Denison but must rely on a favourable distribution of preferences to get him over the line ahead of a second Green or Liberal candidate.
Five electorates in Tasmania each return five candidates under the 100-year-old Hare-Clark system of proportional representation for the 25-member assembly in which 13 MPs make a majority.
Wilkie win could boost Labor
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If Mr Wilkie wins, it leaves Labor leading Liberal 10-9, making the only other uncertain fifth spot, in the northwest seat of Braddon, a must win for the Libs to form minority government.
Greens candidate Paul O'Halloran is the frontrunner against the Liberals for Braddon's fifth spot, which will be decided by the system's complex preferences on Thursday.
If the Greens gain a seat in Braddon after a Wilkie win in Denison then Labor cling to their 10-9 advantage and will form a minority government.
In the event of a 10-10 tie Premier David Bartlett has said Liberal leader Will Hodgman should become premier of a minority government because the Libs gained the most votes overall.
Anti-Green deal stays
Mr Bartlett is maintaining his stance against doing a deal with the Greens, no matter what, based on his often stated personal distrust of Greens leader Nick McKim.
Mr Bartlett could yet be replaced as leader to enable a formal Labor-Greens coalition majority government.
However, if Labor can gain Mr Wilkie's support in an accord they may make a case for an 11-10 dominance and try to form a minority government.
Mr Wilkie has stressed his independence, repeatedly saying he is not associated with any political party.
He's been a permanent fixture around Hobart campaigning for the past couple of years, sustaining an impressively determined campaign on grassroots issues such as cost of living, essential services delivery, public transport and social justice and equality.
Mr Wilkie joined the Greens in 2003 after resigning from the Office of National Assessments, claiming exaggerated intelligence had been used to justify the Iraq war.
He quit the party in 2008 after moving to Tasmania.
He stood twice for the Greens, in 2004 as a candidate in Bennelong - against former prime minister John Howard - and on a Tasmanian senate ticket at the last election.
