Independent Tony Windsor gives himself a 50-50 chance in his battle against Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce in the NSW electorate of New England.
He said it was very close and if this was a normal election, the signs would be positive.
"But I have this feeling that it's not normal and that there's probably an equal number of people out there close to Barnaby as well. It will come down to the wire," he told Sky News.
Asked if a defeat on Saturday meant the end of his long political career, Mr Windsor said he would never say never.
"Some of these issues are very dear to my heart. I want to live and die in this electorate," he said.
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Mr Windsor, who held New England from 2002-13, said fellow independent Rob Oakeshott had an 80 per cent chance of defeating National Luke Hartsuyker in the electorate of Cowper.
He said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten had visited only a third of Australia's 150 federal electorates,
That meant they were taking the rest for granted and that wasn't good enough.
"They might get a bit of a wakeup call out of this particular election," he said.
