I came across an interesting report from JP Morgan Europe published last month.
Economists there use what many in the investment community regard to be a complex algorithm to work out the winner, using a number of factors.
For the record, I hold an Economics degree, and I still shudder to understand the workings of quantitative analysis.
Into their model they include market prices from bookies and exchanges, FIFA world rankings, historical results and the JP Morgan Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical formula. That formula is then applied to each game.
JP Morgan's model indicates Brazil as having the strongest team, Australia incidentally is ranked 21 out of 32 in that Strength Indicator, but because of the fixture schedule, JP is predicting an England/Spain final which will see England ultimately win.
As for Australia, it will be a tough ask for the Socceroos to reach the finals, but there will be some Australian winners, and they'll come in the form of merchandisers, retailers, football organisations and bookmakers.
While the A-League fails to draw in rugby league and AFL crowds, let's not forget, football (soccer) is one of the most played sports in Australia. One in 17 Australians play organised football, more than AFL (one in 49) and league (one in 117)
Business Information Analysts IBISWorld says the average Australian will spend just over $40 each whether the Socceroos win, lose or draw.
That's a total of $884million. But if the Aussies actually reach the final, more than $8billion dollars is expected to be spent. Now that's what I call World Cup Fever!
IBISWorld predicts one million Australians will buy a merchandise item, whether it be a beanie, jersey or scarf for example.
That will add $85million to the economy. 3D televisions are being pushed by retailers, as SBS prepares to broadcast some games in the third dimension, while IBISWorld expects DVD, hard-drive recorders and TiVo devices to be the biggest winners because most games will be broadcast in Australia in the very, very early hours of the morning.
Those early game times won't be a big help to pubs and clubs showing the game, but analysts expect an extra $100million to the industry's coffers, even with a first-phase exit of the Socceroos.
Aussies love a bit of a flutter, and betting agencies will benefit with more than $100million dollars predicted to be wagered.
Let's not forget the Australians that are, or have already travelled to South Africa to support the Socceroos….18,000 in fact, spending $180million dollars. That's 4,000 people and $118million more than those that travelled to Beijing for the 2008 Olympic Games.
If you can't be in South Africa to cheer the Socceroos, don't forget you can watch every game live across SBS One and Two, radio, online and mobile services.
Go Australia! (and failing that…) Go Portugal!
