Donald Trump projected to win 2024 US presidential election — as it happened

Polls have "confounded observers" throughout the campaign, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, said.

He told SBS: "National polls have been tied, and what's remarkable is been replicated in the seven swing states and the same story no matter whether north or south, east or west, so it looks really tired, but in the past few days, we've seen that Kamala Harris has had momentum."

However, Wolpe cautioned against believing the polls, adding: "The polls have confounded observers through the entire campaign because they are so unsatisfactory. Trump's vote was undercounted in the past two elections, and when the votes were counted, he was two or three per cent higher."

"In a one-point campaign, if he is understated by two or three points, he could be in a stronger position."

— Alex Britton

Senior Reporter Prue Lewarne recapped the race so far.

She said: "We just look at what happened ... the debate that absolutely ended the career of Joe Biden was the debate between him and Trump in June of this year."

"It was watched by 51 million people, and it is a disaster for the Democrat president and what was interesting was initially he hung on, and Democrats didn't want to send Joe Biden out of the White House, and Nancy Pelosi comes along, the former House [House of Representatives] speaker, the powerhouse of Democratic politics in California and says effectively 'It is over'.

"And then we have another debate. This is the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on 10 September.

"It is watched by 67 million people, and this time you have the 78-year-old Trump, who is looking old, versus a 60-year-old ... and she is just looking perplexed when he is saying things like 'Illegal migrants were eating cats and dogs in Ohio'.

"Those two debates sort of defined this election. What do Americans think of these two candidates? And the interesting difference is that the Democrats dumped Biden. No matter what Trump has said, things that are violent and misogynistic and racist, the Republicans have stuck by him.

"So the question is ... will they stick with him sufficiently, those Republicans, to back in the White House? We will find out soon enough."

— Alex Britton

Nearly 75 per cent of voters say they fear democracy is under threat in the US, according to exit polls from Edison Research.

Democracy and the economy ranked as by far the most important issues for voters.

Around 14 per cent of people who voted said abortion was the most important issue for them this year, while 11 per cent said immigration was.

The other interesting takeaway from exit polls was that women made up approximately 53 per cent of the electorate.

— Madeleine Wedesweiler

Immigration has been one of the most important issues in voters' minds this election, according to Pew Research Center polls.

SBS News' Chief International Correspondent Ben Lewis visited Arizona last month, right on the US-Mexico border, where migrants regularly cross into the US, often travelling long distances through South and Central America.

He spoke to men who had paid people smugglers to get them from India to Mexico, and others who had crossed several borders in Latin America.

During President Joe Biden's time in office, the US border patrol says it has had about 8 million encounters with migrants attempting to enter the country illegally through the southern border. According to Pew analysis of government figures, December 2023 had the highest number of encounters on record.

This has been on the decline this year after Biden issued an executive order making it much harder to enter and stay in the US without legal permission to seek asylum, which helped result in a 77 per cent decline in encounters from December to this August, according to Pew analysis.

Many Republican voters support Donald Trump's hardline stance on immigration — he's promised a mass deportation of all undocumented migrants if elected, a proposal criticised by both human rights organisations and economists.

Kamala Harris has tried to demonstrate her ability to take control of the southern border but also stressed there should be an earned path to citizenship.

— Madeleine Wedesweiler

The mood in Washington DC is "quite calm" on election day, says Ben Lewis, SBS World News chief international correspondent.

"There are still tourists coming into all the landmarks, people going about their normal business, with those fantastic 'I've voted' stickers on their tops.

"On the streets, you do see signs that there could be expectations of some sort of trouble. Many businesses have boarded up their windows with plywood, and there are many more police officers than you would normally see here in DC.

"It has to be said this did happen in 2020, shops were boarded up then as well, but since then, we have had the Capitol insurrection, the riots on 6 January 2021, so authorities here are particularly concerned."

The United States Capitol is bracing for protests and potential unrest as polling gets underway. Source: Getty / Kent Nishimura

— Alex Britton

Ed and Tracey Danka — who split their time between the swing states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina — have been married for 26 years.

But while that might seem like it's all smooth sailing, there's one key area they disagree on — who should be the next president of the United States.

Read about their contrasting feelings on Trump and Harris here.

Many Australians will be watching the results come in from the US, but who would they vote for if they had the chance?

The Essential Report polled 1,131 Australians about their views, with 41 per cent supporting Kamala Harris and 33 per cent supporting Donald Trump.

In the same poll, more people thought Trump being elected would be good for Australia compared to Harris; but a higher proportion also thought a Trump victory would be bad for Australia (24 per cent) compared to 14 per cent feeling the same if Harris won.

A graph showing what election result would be good or bad for Australia. Source: SBS

— Alex Britton

Nearly seven in ten people in the US consider the 2024 election a significant source of stress, up from just over half in 2016, the American Psychological Association reports.

The future of the country and the economy are the only things to rate higher — with the outcome of the election also having a large impact on both these issues.

A graph showing political concerns commonly cited on US adults' list of worries. Source: SBS

— Alex Britton

The first polls are closing in some US states.

At 10am AEDT, voting will begin wrapping up in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

By 11am AEDT, polls in both states will be fully closed.

Indiana and Kentucky are considered Republican strongholds, meaning Donald Trump is almost guaranteed to win.

Here's how many Electoral College votes are up for grabs:

• Indiana — 11
• Kentucky — 8

Source: SBS

— Amy Hall

Voters in some states are also voting on "ballot proposals" covering a broad range of proposed legislative changes.

There are 140 ballot proposals this year in total.

Reproduction rights and abortion are being voted on in 10 states, while voters in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota are deciding whether to legalise recreational marijuana, which is legal in about half the country.

Over 20 states will vote on future election measures including barring non-citizens from voting.

With immigration a central issue this election, in particular in southern states, voters in Arizona will deliberate whether to make it a state crime to enter the country through an unofficial entry point and for someone to apply for benefits with false documents.

Voters in Washington will consider whether to repeal a law that that caps carbon emissions, while people in Alaska and Missouri will be asked whether they want to increase the minimum wage to $US15 an hour ($22.62).

— Madeleine Wedesweiler

There are 50 states that will decide who the new occupant of the White House will be: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

The race in some states will be closer than in others: Democrats tend to perform strongly in Vermont and Massachusetts, while Wyoming, West Virginia and Oklahoma are among those deemed safely Republican.

Here's a look at where is considered safe and where the race may be tighter, thanks to Ken McLeod.

— Alex Britton

Voting open and closed on Tuesday afternoon and the results were a tie between Harris and Trump — at least in one small part of the United States.

Dixville Notch, in New Hampshire, opened the polls at midnight local time and closed them as soon as all six eligible voters had their say.

A musician played the national anthem as the residents of Dixville Notch prepared to cast their ballots. Source: Getty / Joseph Prezioso/AFP

Polls suggest the race for the White House is neck and neck, and so it proved in the township with three votes cast for Trump and three for Harris.

- Alex Britton

The presidential race between Harris and Trump has been one of the most historic and significant US elections, America's ambassador to Australia says.

"This is a historical election, no doubt about it," US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of former Democrat president John F Kennedy, told Seven's Sunrise program on Wednesday.

"In terms of our foreign policy, and especially in terms of Australia which is our most trusted and capable ally, I don't think it will change the fundamentals ... no matter who wins, Australia will be the winner."

US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy, says it's a "historic election". Source: AAP / Lukas Coch

Democrats Abroad will host a watch party in Canberra, the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia is inviting viewers to the Hawthorn Hotel in Melbourne, and Republican supporters will flock to Sydney's Sanctuary Hotel for a "Trump re-election party".

The US election captures the world's attention in part because of the nation's cultural influence, Professor David Smith of the United States Studies Centre Associate says.

"For most Australians, in some sense, the US is our second country, even if we've never been there, and that's because we consume so much American media," he told the Australian Associated Press.

"But there's also something about American politics — it's such a spectacle.

"It is very big, there's so much money in it, it's got this big celebrity dimension to it, you've got the possibility of violence, and the candidates say and do outlandish things to get attention."

— Australian Associated Press

The lead-up to the election day has shown that no matter who they're voting for, voters share common ground — people are anxious about the economy and immigration, which some see as related issues.

But abortion is far more important for voters in favour of Harris, and immigration is far more important for those who support Trump, according to September polling from the Pew Research Center.

Madeleine Wedesweiler, Sam Dover, and Ben Lewis took a look at where the candidates stand on five key issues:

READ MORE

Immigration, abortion, democracy: Where Harris and Trump sit on key US election issues

— David Aidone

Election days in Australia typically look like sausage sizzles, dogs at polling booths and people voting in budgie smugglers.

In the US the atmosphere is a little different because it's a Tuesday over there and many people don't have the day off work, plus around 80 million people already cast early votes.

It's still a colourful day — here are some of the best pictures via the Australian Associated Press.

Ingrid Bender, a supporter of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, and Jonathan Foust, a supporter of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, offer rosters of who to vote for in their political parties to voters arriving at a polling place in Cranberry, Pennsylvania. Source: AAP / Robert F. Bukaty/AP

Stickers sit on a table inside a polling place, in Atlanta, Georgia. Source: AAP / Brynn Anderson/AP

Precinct commissioners Ruby Augustine and Aloysius Cunningham, right, look on as Linda Matthews assists her husband Johnny Matthews, inside a voting booth as they vote at the Greater Evergreen Baptist Church in New Orleans. Source: AAP / Gerald Herbert/AP

A sign in Arizona offering voters free corn. Source: AAP / ALLISON DINNER/EPA

People cast their ballots at the Galleria At Sunset in Henderson, Nevada. Source: AAP / CAROLINE BREHMAN/EPA

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump walk after voting on Election Day at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center in Florida. Source: AAP / Evan Vucci/AP

A person carries a cross at the south side of the White House in Washington, DC Source: AAP / GAMAL DIAB/EPA

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris phone banks with volunteers at the DNC headquarters on Election Day in Washington. Source: AAP / Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Good morning, and welcome to SBS News' live coverage of the US presidential election.

Voting is already underway, with the first in-person ballots cast in the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch — population 13 — near the border with Canada.

Polls open and closed within a matter of minutes, with six registered voters casting ballots. The result? A 3-3 tie between Democrat candidate vice president Kamala Harris, and Republican former president Donald Trump.

That could be a sign of things to come, with national polling showing Harris and Trump are neck and neck.

States decide what time voting wraps up, and the first polls will close at 10am AEDT in the Republican strongholds of Indiana and Kentucky.

An hour later, Georgia will be among the states to close their polls. US President Joe Biden won the battleground state by a slim margin in the 2020 presidential election.

Polls across all states will have closed by 4pm AEDT.

More than 80 million Americans cast early ballots this year, and millions more will do so today.

But if it's a close race, as polling suggests, the result might not be known for days. Last year, Biden was not declared the winner until the result in Pennsylvania was clear — four days after election day.

READ MORE

Watching the US election from Australia? Here's everything you need to know

— David Aidone