One Nation has announced plans to slash migration by more than 750,000 places over three years, in what would be a major 'reset' of the country's migration system. International students, recent graduates, and their family members would be hardest hit, with places reduced by almost 470,000 over three years. Temporary skilled visas would be cut by just over 100,000, and family members would no longer be eligible to receive visas. The policy has been criticised by the government, opposition, and some industry leaders.
One Nation has unveiled a new policy that it will take to a federal election, which would slash migration by more than 750,000 places over three years, which would push net overseas migration into negative territory.
Net overseas migration - which reflects the balance between entries and departures - would then stabilise at an annual ceiling of 130,000 places.
Currently, the government aims to reduce net overseas migration from roughly 300,000 in 2025, to 245,000 this year, and 225,000 thereafter.
Environment Minister Murray Watt says One Nation's policy would fuel economic disruption.
"One Nation's policy is a recipe to destroy the Australian economy and drive the Australian economy into recession. Even this morning, the National Farmers Federation president has been in the media pointing out that this is a terrible policy for Australian farmers would deprive them of the workers that they need and would drive up the price of food for Australians in the supermarkets."
Nationals leader David Littleproud has also criticised One Nation's plan.
"In regional Australia, what One Nation would do is rip away many of those skilled workers that we actually need to keep the economy going and to pay the nation's bills, because that's where the nation's bills are being paid in mining pits and in paddocks right across regional Australia."
One Nation has promised to protect visas issued under the Pacific Australia Labor Mobility scheme, as well as Working Holiday Makers, which could help soften the impact on industries like agriculture and hospitality.
Despite these carve outs, the National Farmers' Federation has expressed concern food prices could rise, and called for consultation with industry.
Coalition leader Angus Taylor says One Nation needs to front up and explain their proposal.
"A few days ago, their immigration numbers were 130,000. Now it's something different. Well, what is it each year over the next three or four years? What are those numbers? They're not in their releases. They need to explain it. Can I say, on top of that, they need to explain what their policies mean for hardworking small businesses in this country, for a farmer in Narrandera or Griffith, for a pub owner in Tamworth, for a builder in Ipswich. What does this mean for them?"
The party's Leader Pauline Hanson did not hold a press conference to launch the policy, but One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce did speak to News24.
"Well, where we are at the moment is in 2022, we had two million people on temporary visas, and now we're up to three million people. We're going from a country to a caravan park, if it's like that. Now, apparently, between the ages, I think 25 to 29, one in three people is a temporary visa holder, so I'm told this morning. That's ridiculous. So of course, what we have to do to trim these numbers down is go into the details of these of these visas."
The party has sought to link immigration to housing, health and the cost of living, arguing a major reset is needed.
The majority of the cuts would come from international students, graduate workers, and their families.
"We'll be reducing that by around about 240,000; for graduate visas, by about 230,000; for temporary skilled visas, around about 103,500; for bridging visas, which is when you're applying to go from one to the other, which you'll now have to do overseas, 112,500, or thereabouts; unlawful citizens, they're people who basically illegal shouldn't be here, 80,000; and that gets us to in in the proximity of a 766,000. So there's my answer."
Barnaby Joyce says One Nation doesn't want universities used as a backdoor to migration.
Up to 100,000 international students could still be enrolled every year, while graduate visas, which allow international students to temporarily remain in the country and work, would be capped at 20,000 places.
The party is also proposing a new visa class for what they call 'high value' students, with a focus on postdoctoral studies and selected STEM [[Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics]] courses.
As both Labor and the Coalition look to drive down migration numbers, David Littleproud says student visas are low-hanging fruit.
"We went to the last election, cutting back and putting caps on student numbers. When you see Sydney University educates more foreign students than they do Australian students, they make 1.4 billion dollars out of foreign students, we've got to get our migration system right, and at the moment, it's not calibrated right. And what you've got to do is sensible about it, because if you run down this path of populism that one nation wants to undertake, then unfortunately, you also have an unintended consequence where you lose productivity."
Universities Australia has accused One Nation of joining Labor and the Coalition in a race to the bottom on international students.
Chief executive Luke Sheehy says dramatic cuts to international student visas will hurt the sector, and make Australia poorer and less skilled.
Under One Nation's plan, skilled temporary worker visas would also fall from 260,000 to 160,000 over three years, including family members, who'd no longer be eligible for a visa.
Chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKeller says the proposal could seriously undermine the economy.
"You know, if you're going to cut overall visa levels by 750,000 over a three-year period and drive net overseas migration into negative territory, that's a COVID-level shock to the Australian economy."
In its policy document, One Nation pointed to recent cuts in Canada as evidence that immigration can be slashed without crashing the economy, but Mr McKellar says it's a false comparison.
He's calling for a more nuanced debate.
"What the debate cannot be about is it cannot be about arbitrary targets. We can't have solutions which presented which are extreme, which would cause very significant damage to the Australian economy. We've got to focus on those fundamentals. We don't want to see the Australian economy sent backwards. We don't want to see that damage to the long-term growth potential of the Australian economy."
Mr McKellar has also urged the government to make its own policy clear.
"We do want clarity. We want the system integrity to be restored. We want confidence for the public there, and I think it's very important that government, in particular, provides leadership on this, that it clarifies what those settings should be and what measures it's going to undertake to ensure the integrity of our migration system going forward."
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke had been due to give a speech outlining Labor's policy in August - but cancelled with little notice.
Since then, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reportedly met with Angus Taylor in an attempt find common ground.
Mr Taylor has said the Coalition's target is likely to be below 200,000, and linked specifically to housing construction.
Greens leader Larissa Waters says, along with One Nation, both major parties are in a race to the bottom.
