A new World Meteorological Organisation report has found the odds are high that the next five years will smash global heat records.The new United Nations climate projections forecast a high likelihood of more speeded-up warming through 2030, with Earth smashing its record for the hottest year and regularly surging past the international climate limit set as safe in 2015.
Listen to Australian and world news, and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts.
TRANSCRIPT:
A new World Meteorological Organisation report has found the odds are high that the next five years will smash global heat records.
The new United Nations climate projections forecast a high likelihood of more speeded-up warming through 2030, with Earth smashing its record for the hottest year and regularly surging past the international climate limit set as safe in 2015.
has the details.
In Europe, they're sweltering through the end of a spring season that already feels like summer.
Rachel Harries is visiting France, and says it's not been a pleasant experience.
"This is quite uncomfortable - well, you know, it’s hard to walk and explore in this weather.”
Asia has also been experiencing heatwaves.
Dr Syeda Samra Zaidi is a physician at Indus hospital clinic in Pakistan, on Karachi’s Baba Island.
The island is a centuries old coastal settlement of around 25,000 people.
“Because of the extreme heat and harsh weather conditions here, women have to travel long distances just to fetch water. Naturally, this creates even more difficulties during their pregnancy and increases health risks for both the mother and the baby.... Many babies are born malnourished and unhealthy. In some cases, they are born prematurely or with low birth weight. In addition, many of these children suffer from anaemia, vitamin D deficiency, and other health complications.”
The World Meteorological Organisation has produced a report with the UK Met Office that has found such scenarios are no surprise.
Melissa Seabrook is the report's co-author.
"This is a confirmation of what we already knew. There's very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise."
The report predicts global temperatures over the next five years, based on the averaging of about 200 runs of computer simulations using 13 different climate models from various countries.
Their climate projections forecast a high likelihood of more speeded-up warming through to 2030.
Dr Seabrook says it's becoming clear the Paris climate agreement is not likely to hold.
"It's very likely, so an 86 percent chance, that one in the next five years will set a new record, which is currently 2024. And there's a 91 percent chance that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees (Celsius) for at least one year in the next five."
All of that has implications.
The WMO anticipates dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a crucial part of Earth's natural defences against human-caused climate change.
Dr Seabrook says the Arctic is also at play.
"The warming of the Arctic can cause quite significant impacts on weather systems as well. So the cold Arctic temperatures act as a barrier for the high-up atmospheric winds in the polar vortex. And if these are disrupted by the warming of the Arctic, this could potentially disrupt the polar vortex and could bring more severe weather events, especially to northern latitudes.”
Johan Rockstrom is the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
He says there has been a kind of narrowing of the futures, where it cannot be as bad as once thought - but also not as good as they hoped.
Dr Seabrook says the W-M-O report reaches a similar conclusion.
She says there have been gains in the fight to curb climate change which have dialed back the most catastrophic of future heating - but there must be even more done.
"Although it's not specifically covered in this report, there is scientific discussion around whether the warming rate is accelerating. But the one thing that is very clear is that global temperatures will continue to rise unless urgent action is taken."
