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Government details modelling behind national vaccination plan

Labor's floated the idea of a $300 cash incentive to encourage more jabs in arms, but the PM says Australians are motivated by the knowledge vaccine saves lives Source: AAP

Australians have been given hope that the nation could see the last of widespread lockdowns by the end of the year. The detailed modelling underpinning the National Cabinet vaccination plan has been publicly released, identifying young Australians as “peak” spreaders.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has released the modelling that's informing the federal government's latest coronavirus plan.

The world is in a serious battle with the delta strain of COVID. This has been a long war against this virus.

The latest variant of the virus is disrupting all Australia's previous successes. 

Outbreaks across the country have sent more than 10 million Australians into lockdown.

The tools that have helped us so much over the last 18 months and more have indeed been blunted by the delta strain. The delta strain is the gamechanger, and our response has had to change with those changing circumstances.

The Doherty Institute is the organisation tasked with providing scientific modelling for the government.  

It had the grim task of working out the potential death toll in a serious outbreak. 

Once 50 per cent of the population get vaccinated, it projects there'll still be almost 9,000 deaths from the virus.  

When the coverage reaches 80 per cent, it estimates the death toll will be over one thousand.  

Professor Jodie McVernon from the Institute says, as vaccine supply increase in the months to come, vaccinating young adults will be critical to reaching those targets.

In this virus case, it's really the 20-39 years category that are peak spreaders. They will bring COVID to their children and to their parents and this is the group where we're proposing the reorientation of the strategy.


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People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 meters away from others. Check your state’s restrictions on gathering limits.

If you are experiencing cold or flu symptoms, stay home and arrange a test by calling your doctor or contact the Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080. News and information is available in 63 languages at

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