From Tehran to Lebanon: how Israel is navigating escalation

In this interview, we speak with Sima Shine, a former senior Mossad official and leading voice at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies about the rapidly evolving confrontation between Israel, Iran and the United States. As Washington intensifies economic pressure and military posturing, we explore the strategic calculus behind sanctions, blockades and the threshold for direct strikes on critical infrastructure such as Kharg Island. Shine unpacks whether economic warfare can achieve deterrence, or whether it risks tipping into a broader regional conflict. We also examine the role of Iran’s proxy network, including Hezbollah, the limits of ceasefire frameworks and how intelligence assessments shape decision-making in real time. Ultimately, the conversation asks: are we witnessing a controlled pressure campaign, or the early stages of a much wider war?

From left, Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Dept. of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Source: AP / Jacquelyn Martin/AP/AAP Image