Indian Australians are talking about a lot of permutation and combinations in social gatherings about Indian election results based on different exit polls.
Many of these exit polls have predicted a win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janta Party.
However, a very few are able to pinpoint on which seat is going which way.
Sushant Sinha is a New Delhi based political analyst.
He says, “Each seat has a combination of issues and personalities attached to it which will determine the outcome on 23rd May the result day.”
We tried to find out about a few high profile seats and their likely result prediction.
Varanasi:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contesting from here for the second time. In 2014 he defeated Aam Admi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal by more than three lakh votes.
Sushant says, “In absence of any credible opponent Varanasi should be a big margin win for Modi.”
Azamgarh:
This seat is a strong bastion of the Samajwadi Party. Even in 2014 Modi wave, SP held on to win it.
But this time BJP has fielded Bhojpuri film Superstar Nirhhua alias Dineshlal Yadav to put pressure on Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav who is a Maha-gathbandhan candidate.
Akhilesh might win but the fight is too close to call at this point in time, says Mr Sinha.
Bhopal:
With candidates like Digvijay Singh from Congress and Sadhvi Pragya Thakur from BJP, Bhopal has been a talking point internationally.
Sushant Sinha told SBS Hindi, “Bhopal has been a stronghold of BJP and this time also they might win but it won’t be a win for Sadhvi but will be a denial of political revival to Digvijay Singh.”
Gurdaspur:
This seat is attracting a lot of attention because of film star Sunny Deol’s candidature from BJP.
Sushant says, “If the crowd is an indicator of popularity and charm, Sunny might be able to use it this time and win Gurudaspur for BJP.”
Patna Sahib:
BJP’s five times MP Shatrughan Sinha deserted his party after his discontent with the party. He is contesting on Congress ticket and clashing with Cabinet minister in Modi Government, Ravi Shankar Prasad.
“It seems Shatrughan has miscalculated his moves and seems to be losing Patna Sahib to Ravi Shankar Prasad,” said Mr Sinha.
Begusarai:
Communist Party of India is hopeful that former Jawaharlal Nehru University student union president Kanahiya Kumar will revive their fortunes.
But Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son and RJD leader Tejasvi Yadav have spoiled Mr Kumar’s political ambitions by filling a strong Muslim candidate.
Sushant says, “This will help BJP’s vocal leader Giriraj Singh win Begusarai because of the division of votes.”
Amethi:
Congress president Rahul Gandhi is facing a fierce battle with high profile minister Smriti Irani.
Mr Gandhi defeated Ms Irani in 2014 by a margin of almost fifty thousand votes.
Don’t be surprised if Rahul loses and Smriti wins in Amethi, says Sushant Sinha.
Delhi:
“I don’t think AAP is in the contest in any of the seven seats. They will be at the third spot,” says Mr Sinha.
BJP won all the seats in 2014 and they are most likely to win six seats this time, Sushant told SBS Hindi.
Mumbai:
BJP and Shiv Sena combination may win all Mumbai seats says Mr Sinha.
He says, “Congress should have worked a little hard on local candidates rather than a leader who is seen more on TV than with people in their constituency.”
Raebareli and Gandhinagar
Sushant says, “Both BJP president Amit Shah and former Congress President Sonia Gandhi will win their respective seats of Gandhinagar and Raebareli comfortably.”
Disclaimer: These are Delhi-based political analyst Sushant Sinha's personal views and are not based on exhaustive research.
