United States President Donald Trump says he will begin removing troops from Syria, in a move which has shocked even his own government. US troops had been in the country to eliminate the control of IS, but President Trump says they are no longer necessary because I-S has been defeated.
But many believe while IS forces have been decimated, they still could pose a threat to the region.
United States President Donald Trump has begun withdrawing US troops from Syria, declaring they have succeeded in their mission to defeat I-S and are no longer needed in the country.
The decision to pull out coincides with the close of a campaign by roughly 2,000 US troops to retake territory once held by I-S militants. US President Donald Trump says the time is right: "Now we've won, it's time to come back. They're getting ready. You're going to see them soon. These are great American heroes. These are great heroes of the world because they fought for us, but they've killed ISIS, who hurts the world and we're proud to have done it. And I'll tell you they're up there looking down on us. And there is nobody happier or more proud of their families, to put them in a position where they've done such good for so many people."
The Trump administration hasn't detailed a timeline for withdrawal and hasn't explicitly confirmed that President Trump has ordered a total withdrawal.
But what does seem clear is that the President has bypassed his top national security advisers and US military commanders and stunned politicians with the announcement.
Republican Senator for South Carolina Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who is often a strong ally of the President, says this decision will have "devastating consequences".
"If this decision is a withdrawal of all of our forces in Syria now, we're dramatically less safe. This is an Obama-like move: ISIS would not be alive today if it were not for Obama's decision to withdraw from Iraq. And I'll have to say, if Trump withdraws from Syria and they do come back, like I think they will, he'll be one of the reasons they came back."
The decision could leave the United States with few options to prevent a possible resurgence of I-S and could also undermine diplomatic efforts to end the Syrian civil war, now in its eighth year. Fellow Republican Senator Marco Rubio has also condemned the decision. "The decision to withdraw an American presence in Syria is a colossal, in my mind, mistake. A grave error that's going to have significant repercussions in the years and months to come."
While IS's control of parts of the country is much reduced, Lowy Institute research fellow Rodger Shanahan says President Trump's claim that the militant group has been defeated is not entirely accurate: "Brett McGurk, the longtime representative against Islamic State from the US government, has said what they want to achieve is an enduring defeat and an enduring defeat has not been achieved yet. So using the term defeat when there is still contact with Islamic State forces going on is, well I'd have to say, a bit premature."
Mr Shanahan says it may also expose an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, which had been backed by the United States.
The SDF have been among the most effective in eliminating I-S, but Turkey distrusts the Kurdish fighters in the alliance due to their links to the Kurdish Workers' Party, the force that has waged an insurgency in Turkey since 1984. With the U-S out of Syria, many are concerned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is supported by Russia, Iran and Turkey, will take control which Rodger Shanahan says is a concern for the Kurdish forces: "Now they've had talks over the last couple of months with Damascus and they would have known that the US is not going to stay there forever. So they've had long-term channels of discussion with Damascus but I think it's the time frame with which this withdrawal is occurring that means whatever bargaining position the Kurds had previously, it's lessening by the hour."
A complete withdrawal of US troops from Syria would still leave a sizable US military presence in the region, including about 5,200 troops across the border in Iraq. Australia also has 800 defence personnel in two operating bases in the Middle East, including Iraq. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has just visited the troops, says they will remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future. "We support a free and independent and sovereign Iraq. And part of achieving that is being able to move to a point where this type of a support in the future will be no longer necessary. That will be a recognition of their success and they, I think, seek that as much as anyone else. And so the more that we can help them achieve that and move to that position I think that will be a positive day."
Greg Barton, Chair In Global Islamic Politics at Melbourne's Deakin University, says President Trump's decision to remove troops from Syria could make things difficult for Australia as well.
"If ISIS gains ground, and if the Iranians and the Russians and the Turks gain ground in northeastern Syria, it's going to impact on us and it's going to impact on decisions we have to make down the track in terms of whether we send further military deployments to help with troop training in Iraq or Syria, or whether we have to deal with a changed security outlook in the region. So the short answer is, we should be very, very concerned."
Intelligence expert, Lao Petrilli, has commented the situation.
