History suggests Australia is primed for wild grass fires on a massive scale, following three years of wet conditions.
A new analysis examines what happened after Australia experienced previous prolonged periods of wet La Nina conditions.
There have only been three of these periods since 1950: they include 1954 to 1957; 1973 to 1976; and 1998 to 2001.
When all three ended, big, deadly grass fires ensued, particularly on the east coast and especially in New South Wales.
Fire science expert David Bowman predicts the three recent years of wet conditions - also known as a 'triple La Nina' - will end the same way.
"Fuel loads which are really quite astronomical - I like to think of them as the petrol of bushfire fuels. Fires (in these conditions) are extremely fast-burning. They can be extraordinarily hot. The energy in the fuel is released very fast. They are very dangerous fires. Although they're only burning straw but when you burn it with a 50-kilometre an hour wind these fires can literally race across landscapes, overtake cars, jump over roads and cause catastrophic damage to rural landscapes."
With a fast turn from wet to hot and dry conditions, that quickly dries out the significant amount of vegetation generated by the wet period.
Former Queensland Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Lee Johnson says dry grass conditions make it extremely flammable - hence the powder keg warning.
"I am sure that all of the services across Australia are well aware of what's coming. History over many years has shown us that following La Nina events, grasslands become the first initial problem with fire. Subsequently, as things dry out, bushfire later in summer this coming year and early next year will become a bigger problem. This is a real threat. We've got fires now in Queensland burning in February which is almost unheard-of. This should be our wettest time of the year."
A new national report warning of dangerous grass-fire conditions on a scale never experienced before in Australia has been released by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action.
Bob Conroy has more than 40 years of experience in protected area management, and he's a current member of the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action.
He says the prolonged La Nina has seen fire fuel loads jump from a normal range of 0.5 to 1.5 tonnes per hectare to around six tonnes.
