Investors should do reasonably well in 2015 given moderate global economic growth and low interest rates, but it could be a wild ride.
AMP Capital's chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver, says sharemarkets will likely be more volatile - and Australia's may not fare as well as some of its overseas counterparts because the tailwind from commodity prices over the past decade has now become a headwind.
Some factors could push sharemarkets up, others could push them down.
In the near term, the impact of plunging oil prices on energy producers may worsen, pulling markets down, before they improve.
More uncertainty over a possible exit by Greece from the eurozone and the possibility of deflation in the eurozone could also be a drag.
Also, said Dr Oliver, shares are no longer dirt cheap, and there's a greater dependence on earnings.
On the other hand, continuing global growth - albeit uneven - should help company profits, which would boost sharemarkets.
A lower oil price should ultimately be positive for economic growth, and lift markets.
Global interest rates and those in Australia were low likely would go lower - even though US interest rates may in 2015 start to go up.
Others factors in Australia's favour include the fall in the Australian dollar, which removes one major drag on economic growth.
The economy's non-mining sectors - housing construction, retailing, tourism, higher education and manufacturing - are also showing signs of improvement.
Furthermore, stronger volumes of exports from projects in the resources sector will partially compensate for the impact of lower commodity prices.
Dr Oliver said the global economy should grow by about 3.5 per cent in 2015, driven mainly by the US, with Europe and Japan lagging, and China running at around seven per cent.
Australia's economy will probably grow at around 2.5 to three per cent in the wake of falling mining investment, the slump in commodity prices and budget cutbacks.
But momentum is likely to pick up by the end of 2015, helped by more non-mining activity.
The US dollar will continue to rise as the euro, yen and Australian dollar weaken.
Dr Oliver says the Australian dollar will probably fall to about 75 US cents.
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