2016 jobs figures snap back to reality

The RBA won't pull the trigger on interest rates after the labour market made a soft start to 2016, with January's jobless rate rising to six per cent.

Job adverts

Job advertisements fell 1.9 per cent in December, after rising for four consecutive months. (AAP)

The labour market has fallen back down to earth after stellar jobs growth recorded late last year, but a soft start to 2016 won't prompt a rate cut.

The total number of people with jobs fell by 7,900 in January, pushing the unemployment rate up to six per cent from 5.8 per cent in December.

ANZ senior economist Justin Fabo said January's payback was "the correction we had to have".

Over October and November 130,000 jobs were created nationwide.

Jobs then fell by 1,000 in December.

Mr Fabo said the past two months of falls does not mean the labour market has hit a wall, stressing employment growth was still 24,000 per month in the six months to January.

"The weakness in today's labour force report should be heavily discounted, just as the previous outsized gains in employment were treated with a grain of salt," he said.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said recent sharemarket volatility may have caused employers to delay taking on new full-time staff, allowing existing workers to do longer hours instead or taking on part-time staff.

The number of part-time jobs was up by 32,700 in January, while full-time employment fell 40,600.

"(But) the outlook for the job market remains positive, with lead indicators like vacancies and job ads still rising," Mr James said.

CommSec expects the jobless rate will continue to drift lower this year towards 5.5 per cent.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy tipped the unemployment rate to range between 5.8 and 6.2 per cent for up to a year.

He said January's number won't be a rate cut trigger for the Reserve Bank, and expects interest rates to remain firmly on hold in the near term.

"We know the RBA don't pin too much significance on just one print, they're looking at how things play out over a six-month time horizon," he said.

St George senior economist Janu Chan says job growth has weakened to a more realistic level given the below-trend pace of economic growth.

"Nonetheless, today's data will add to the RBA's doubts about the recent underlying strength in the labour market," she said.

A bigger pullback in coming months will raise the chances of further easing, particularly if uncertainty in global financial markets remains high, she said.

The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, was steady at 65.2 per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.


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Source: AAP



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