$A destined to go lower, soon

The Australian dollar is set to fall and stay below 90 US cents after the US Federal Reserve said it would taper its stimulus program in the coming months.

It looks like the Reserve Bank will get the Christmas present it wants most - the Aussie dollar falling below 90 US cents and staying there.

In recent weeks RBA governor Glenn Steven has been complaining that the high exchange rate is a drag on the non-mining parts of the economy.

On Thursday morning, the US Federal Reserve gave Glenn Stevens a little bit of help in getting his wish - a likely winding back of the Fed's massive economic stimulus program.

LTG GoldRock director Andrew Barnett said the Fed's tapering announcement has already strengthened the greenback and saw most other major currencies, including the Australian dollar, lose value.

"This is a bit of a game changer for the Aussie dollar," he said.

"If the Fed does start a little tapering in December then we could see the lows of this year between now and Christmas."

The currency's lowest point of the year so far was 88.48 US cents in August.

"It seems, at the moment, the Fed has more control over the Aussie dollar than the RBA," Mr Barnett said.

The Australian dollar has spent most of the past two years above parity with the US dollar, thanks to a combination of US dollar weakness brought about by the Fed's stimulus, and commodity prices reaching 150-year highs.

However, as the Fed winds back its stimulus and the peak of the minerals price boom fades, the Aussie dollar will head lower against other major currencies.

In a speech on Thursday evening, the RBA governor indicated that, if need be, he is prepared to put the final nail in the coffin of the "uncomfortably high" Australian dollar.

He said he was "open-minded" on the issue of intervening to drive the Aussie lower, which would involve the RBA selling Australian dollars and buying foreign currency.

Mr Stevens added the Australian dollar was "currently above levels we would expect to see in the medium term".

BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien said the RBA intervening in currency markets is nothing new and last did it at the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008.

"While their efforts eventually paid off, their initial efforts did not always last and it took nine days of intervention," she said.


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Source: AAP


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