$A, iron ore price hits trade balance

The trade balance stayed in the red for the 11th consecutive month with a deficit of $1.26 billion in February.

Ore excavation at the Rio Tinto mine in WA

Australia's trade deficit has blown out to its largest level in five months due to iron ore prices. (AAP)

Australia's trade deficit has blown out to its largest level in five months as falling iron ore prices and the lower Australian dollar take their toll.

The deficit was $1.26 billion in February, the 11th month in a row it has been in the red, and was $1 billion the month before.

Exports rose one per cent, while imports were up two per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said falling commodity prices were the biggest drag on the nation's balance sheet.

Iron ore, Australia's biggest commodity export, fell below $US50 a tonne this week, and has halved in value in the past 12 months.

"The latest trade figures are certainly disappointing but not unexpected," Mr Sebastian said.

"Given the reliance on the mining sector to drive exports there is no doubt likely to be more volatility in future monthly trade data."

Mr Sebastian said the rise in imports was also due to the Australian dollar falling three per cent in February, pushing up the price of imports and making exports cheaper.

"Given the slide in the Australian dollar, and sluggish economic activity, the lift in imports is more likely a price effect," he said.

ANZ economists Katie Hill and Felicity Emmett expect a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will boost the trade balance in 2016.

"Weakness in bulk commodity prices, particularly iron ore, is likely to keep the trade balance in deficit until the end of 2015," ANZ said.

"However, iron ore export volumes should continue to grow solidly, while LNG exports are forecast to ramp up this year as production at Queensland LNG plants comes on stream."

St George senior economist Janu Chan said the "silver lining" in the trade figures was that imports continued to rise solidly, a possible sign that consumer spending is expected to strengthen.

"Although stronger imports detract from growth, it provides a positive signal that domestic demand is improving," she said.

"Annual growth in imports edged up to 4.9 per cent in February, a modest pace, but the strongest in 10 months."

Exports to the US reached a six-year high in February which, Mr Sebastian said, was because of the lower exchange rate and a recovering American economy.

"Over the past decade, there has been a fixation on trade with China. But in the past year, there has been a broadening of focus," he said.

"The US has again become a focus for Australian exporters."


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Source: AAP


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