A year of impressive economic records

Financial markets see the potential risk of an official interest rate rise in 2018, but there are many factors that may make the Reserve Bank sit tight.

All good things come to an end, they say, and that could well be the case for record-low interest rates in 2018.

Scott Morrison could be the first federal treasurer since late 2010 having to awkwardly explain an increase in official interest rates if the economy continues to build a head of steam.

While the Reserve Bank independently decides the direction of monetary policy, voters tend to blame governments for interest rate rises and oppositions make sure they do.

But an interest rate rise would be a sign the central bank is confident the economy has finally shaken off the fallout from the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

The Reserve Bank only cuts rates when the economy is doing badly.

The official cash rate has been at a record low of 1.5 per cent since August 2016.

Financial markets point to a 50-50 chance of a rate rise to 1.75 per by the end of next year.

Economists' views vary. National Australia Bank, for example, is expecting increases in August and November, but Westpac sees no change at all in 2018.

There are many factors determining when governor Philip Lowe will eventually pull the rate lever, which would be his first rate change since he became head of the central bank in September 2016.

The US Federal Reserve has set the trend away from emergency monetary policy, lifting its key rate for the third time this year to be in line with Australia's cash rate.

Expectations are for three more US rate rises next year as the US and global economies continue to grow, and a further two in 2019.

In Australia, it has been a year of impressive records.

The economy completed a record 26 years of uninterrupted expansion and entered the 27th year at a solid annual clip of 2.8 per cent, the fastest pace in 15 months.

There have been 14 consecutive monthly increases in employment, the longest streak in over 20 years.

That has pushed the jobless rate down to 5.4 per cent and the lowest level in almost five years.

Australia's trade position has also been in surplus for 12 consecutive months, something that hasn't occurred in 44 years.

"The economy overall has improved over 2017, mirroring the lift in world growth," Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan says.

But inflation remains very benign and below the Reserve Bank's 2-3 per cent target band, which suggests there is no urgency for the central bank to lift interest rates, Hanlan says.

"The Reserve Bank has a lot of patience," he says.

However, Lowe and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority haven't been idle.

Their macro-prudential measures have taken the heat out of a housing market, where Sydney and Melbourne prices at one stage looked like getting out of control, sparking fears of a hefty correction.

The measures have helped to dampen demand from cashed-up investors, which has allowed first homebuyers to get a toe-hold back in the market.

The proportion of first-time homebuyers taking out a mortgage has rebounded to a five-year high from record lows, assisted by stamp duty cuts by the NSW and Victorian governments.

Yet for all this good news, household spending has shrunk to its lowest rate since the GFC, with wage growth around its lowest rate in at least 20 years and only just ahead of inflation.

Slim pay awards have left households struggling, compounded by big electricity bills, high levels of debt and, more recently, rising petrol prices.

Unsurprisingly, consumer confidence - a pointer to future spending - has been choppy and for most of the year, pessimists have outflanked optimists.

In contrast, business confidence and conditions have been extremely buoyant.

This has resulted in firms hiring in droves and a marked pick-up in business investment.

But there are some glimmers of hope that the consumer will return in 2018.

Although Lowe expects slow wage growth could linger, he anticipates stronger conditions in the labour market will eventually lift pay.

The central bank also said some employers were finding it harder to hire workers with the necessary skills, possibly a prelude to rising wages.

At the same time, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is promising personal income tax cuts before the 2019 federal election and "keeping more money in the pockets of hardworking Australians".

It could be the much-needed spark to get shopping malls buzzing again.


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Source: AAP


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A year of impressive economic records | SBS News