ABS admits problems with jobs data

The ABS admitted on Wednesday that there were problems with its July and August employment data.

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The ABS has admitted there were problems with its July and August jobs data. (AAP)

The huge rise in employment in August and the spike in the jobless rate a month earlier didn't actually happen - the Australian Bureau of Statistics intends to revise most of it away.





The number of Australians with jobs rose by a whopping 121,000 in August, the largest monthly increase since records began in 1978, the ABS reported last month.

Forecasts had centred on a gain of only 10,000.

A month earlier the ABS said the unemployment rate jumped to a 12-year high of 6.4 per cent in July, which also surprised economists who were expecting the rate to stay steady at six per cent.

Doubts were raised about the veracity of the figures at the time they were both released.

The figures are adjusted to remove the effect of regular seasonal influences on the data.

But the ABS said there was very little evidence of the usual seasonality in the July and August figures, as well as the September figures, which will be released on Thursday.

The Bureau of Statistics said it will revise the figures for these months by replacing the reported seasonally adjusted figures with the unadjusted figures.

The acting Australian statistician at the ABS, Jonathan Palmer said there will be a review with independent external input to develop an appropriate method for seasonal adjustment for the October figures and those afterwards.

"It is critical that the ABS produces the best set of estimates that it can," he said.

"The ABS has not made this decision lightly and believes this approach will result in a more meaningful set of seasonally adjusted estimates."

AAP chief economist Garry Shilson-Josling said this will mean that the rise of 121,000 jobs in August, is likely to be revised to a small rise of 30,000, barring any revisions to earlier data.

The total number of people with jobs in July originally fell by 4,100, but that is likely to be revised to a rise of 4,000.

Unemployment is expected to have stayed steady at six per cent, in line with the unadjusted figures already available, for July and August.


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