Victorian Premier Denis Napthine still doesn't expect Alcoa to make a decision on the future of its Point Henry aluminium smelter until closer to mid-year, despite speculation it could be earlier.
The Australian Workers Union (AWU) believes a decision on the plant's future is imminent.
But Dr Napthine said Alcoa was monitoring production at the smelter before making a decision toward mid-year.
"Alcoa, at their Point Henry smelter, indicated that they were facing challenges last year," he told reporters in Melbourne on Wednesday.
"The government worked with them and the previous federal Labor government to provide certainty until the middle of this year.
"They will be monitoring the production at Point Henry, they will be monitoring the world aluminium price, the cross-competitiveness of their business and those decisions will be made by Alcoa towards the middle of this year."
Alcoa last month said no decision had been made on whether to close the Point Henry smelter, but has ruled out asking for more government funding.
The company plans to inform the 500 workers at the site about the smelter's future by the end of March.
AWU state secretary Ben Davis said he expected an announcement from Alcoa in coming weeks.
"I'm very pessimistic about what that announcement will be," he told Fairfax Media.
Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey says he has no information about the smelter's future.
"It is tremendously sad to hear of any business that may be considering closing or is unable to compete," Mr Hockey told Fairfax Radio.
"Again, that is a classic example - Alcoa has a massive carbon tax bill.
"These things cost jobs and what we've got to do is reduce the cost of production in Australia, particularly for energy, and allow enterprise get on with creating jobs and growth."
