If the Liberal National Party loses Saturday's Redcliffe by-election as expected, Premier Campbell Newman will have many things to blame.
Unpopular job and service cuts, social control laws and stoushes with the judiciary would have helped seal the party's fate months ago, but it will be more convenient for Mr Newman to point the finger at former member Scott Driscoll.
The LNP-turned-independent-turned-quitter has doubtless brought the party into disrepute with his dodgy business dealings.
But Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams expects the "Driscoll factor" to make up only half of the swing against the LNP, a year out from a general election.
"It will be expedient to contribute the whole loss to Driscoll. It will give the LNP government space to push ahead with its narrative," Dr Williams told AAP.
"We'll see more serious talk about asset sales after the by-election."
Mr Newman concedes his party will struggle to retain the seat, but he hasn't given up hope that Kerri-Anne Dooley will put up a good fight.
"We are the underdogs in this campaign. We clearly know that from all the feedback we have from the polls but this lady is determined to give people the opportunity for a fresh start," the premier said this week.
His face isn't on Ms Dooley's how-to-vote card, but he has visited the electorate, northeast of Brisbane, seven times since the poll was called.
To drum up support for Ms Dooley, a local nurse, he has announced a $12 million upgrade of the local hospital and $400,000 for a new arts hub.
It's been two years since the LNP's thumping win in the state election, which gave it 78 seats in the 89 seat parliament.
In Redcliffe, Mr Driscoll scored a 15.5 per cent swing after preferences to get a 10.5 per cent margin.
The seat is traditionally Labor-leaning and voters who flirted with the LNP at the 2012 poll are expected to revert to type this time around.
Polls and analysts put the swing against the LNP between 12 and 17 per cent and the ALP could win a ballpark victory of 57-43 after preferences.
A victory will make Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk's leadership safer.
But Dr Williams says the result will be more a vote against the LNP than an embracing of Labor and its leader.
He does not expect the swing to carry through to the 2015 state election.
"If the ALP was in complete and utter disarray it would be closer, but there must be some degree of credibility restored in the electorate's mind."
Labor says Mr Newman has been left off Ms Dooley's how-to-vote card because the LNP knows how unpopular he is.
High profile candidate Yvette D'Ath, who represented the electorate federally, is not complacent, despite discontent in the community.
"A lot of people have lost their jobs out here. There has been no one speaking up about all the services we are losing," she said.
"If they got a member as part of the government, they'd get the same with the rest of the LNP backbench, which is absolute silence."
Mr Driscoll quit politics in November, before he was shoved, after state parliament found him guilty of 49 counts of contempt and fined $90,000.
