Analysis: How the west could be won, in a few seats at least

It's been a federal conservative heartland for many years now but cracks may be starting to show in the West Australian Liberal party's armour.

On the plane to Canberra from Western Australia, around parliamentary sitting time, there would not be many seats left for the Labor party.

Out of the state's 15 lower-house seats, 12 are Liberal and just three Labor.

Some of the country's biggest political names are among that group: deputy leader Julie Bishop, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, Justice Minister Michael Keenan, Employment Minister Michaelia Cash, Social Services Minister Christian Porter and assistant Health Minister Ken Wyatt.

The mining tax, introduced by Labor, did not go down well in a state built on the backs of many a mineral.

The elections of 2010 and 2013 brought Labor a lot of pain.

But it appears this year's election could bring the party a little joy.

Political analyst William Bowe said Labor would more than likely retain its three seats, possibly increasing their margin, but could take one or two seats off the Liberals as well as winning the new seat of Burt.

"Labor, you would think, cannot fail to improve upon their performance last time," Mr Bowe said.

"The qualification you'd add to that is you've probably be saying that for the last five elections in a row and they managed to do worse every time.

"I think though this time, given the unpopularity of the State [Liberal] Government, the depths that Labor had sunk to at the last two elections, the only way is up for them this time.

"I think the Liberal Party is going to have a really difficult time defending at least one of those seats that they’ve been winning for the last few elections, which have normally been very marginal seats."

Dropping numbers

Western Australia’s Liberal government is languishing in the polls.

Many in the state believe the government squandered the revenue from the mining boom – the state has lost its triple-A credit rating, unemployment is up and the housing market is down.

Opposition Leader Mark McGowan has finally made ground on Premier Colin Barnett and is now the state’s preferred leader.

State Liberal Party president Norman Moore, also a member of the Federal party executive, acknowledged local factors can play a role in Federal elections but he said the Liberal Party was still the better economic manager.

"The federal government needs to be working very hard on some alternative economic growth; other industries," Mr Moore said.

"The prime minister talks very much about innovation, technology, tourism's important, those sorts of things.

"Industries that have perhaps taken a back seat in the past because so much energy’s been concentrated on the resource sector; we need to start expanding the economy and that’s not just on a federal level, but a state level as well."

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten spent time in the west this week drumming up support for Labor.

He was with new Labor recruit Anne Aly who is contesting the seat of Cowan, which after a redistribution now includes voters that may find the Egyptian-born de-radicalisation expert appealing.

"It has been rearranged in the redistribution in a way that has taken away some good suburbs for the Liberal party, more sort of western suburbs, and added more Labor voting territory nearer to the city," Mr Bowe said.

"The margin there is well within range of any reasonably solid Labor swing and I think it’s going to be very difficult for the member there, Luke Simpkins, to hold on."

Burt

Labor may also have a shot with the new seat of Burt that sits to the south-east of Perth.

It’s being contested by lawyer Matt Keogh who put in a good performance at last year’s by-election for the now neighbouring seat of Canning.

Many of the booths that went Mr Keogh’s way are now in the new seat of Burt. The new seat also takes in state Labor seats.

"It's a seat that Labor should naturally win," Mr Bowe said.

"It's got Armadale in it, which is one of the great strongholds of Labor support in Western Australia, and with a clean slate of candidates it's going to be a very difficult seat for the Liberal Party to win.

"So that’s another seat where I think Labor is more likely than not to get over the line and it’s another reason why Labor should be taking some level of encouragement from Western Australia at this election."

Public 'sick of leadership talk'

For Labor's part, there's no more talk about leadership woes.

Lawyer Tim Hammond, who is contesting Alannah MacTiernan’s old seat of Perth, said the conversation with the electorate had changed.

"I don't think there’s any mystery or mischief in relation to what the voters wanted to talk about in 2013 and 2010," he said.

“They were quite simply sick of talks about leadership, they were sick of issues in relation to division, and perhaps sick of all the political parties, including ours, looking inwards instead of looking outwards.

"What’s really refreshing about the story we have to tell going into the 2016 election is that we’re talking about policy and we’re talking about things we want to do.

"It makes it a really exciting time to be out there in the community."