During Tuesday night's budget speech, Treasurer Joe Hockey said Australia was on a path back to budget surplus.
Getting back in black is the same promise governments have made for years, but the forecasts consistently overshoot the results.
For years, Labor and Liberal governments have made forecasts for returning to surplus further and further away.
Budget papers outlining the underlying cash balance reveal this continued fall.
Budget estimates were inherently difficult to get right, since economic modelling relied on assumptions, senior lecturer and Head of Economics at James Cook University in Townsville, Dr Riccardo Welters said.
A key assumption used to estimate the underlying cash balance was the price of minerals, which Australia had no control over, Dr Welters said.
"It’s all determined in international markets," Dr Welters said.
He suggested budget papers should contain margins for the cash balance under favourable and unfavourable scenarios, rather than precise figures that create a false sense of accuracy.
"When you mention these numbers, you create a certain pseudo-certainty, which isn't really there," Dr Welters said.
Treasurer Joe Hockey says the government will make the gains towards a surplus, despite the falling iron ore price and what the government often refers to as years of financial mismanagement under the former Labor govenment.
Former treasurer Wayne Swan often said the Labor government was working to insulate Australia from the Global Financial Crisis.
This year's budget papers reveal the actual underlying cash balance in 2013-14 had reached a deficit of $48.5 billion in 2013-14, compared to the $18.8 billion deficit in 2012-13 reported at last year's budget.
As the budget projections and estimates of a return to surplus have fallen away over recent years, the rhetoric of politicians has changed.
The changing budget surplus rhetoric of Australia's politicians
Joe Hockey, 2015 budget speech -
"Despite the iron ore price having halved, we are still on a clear and credible path back to surplus"
Joe Hockey, 2015 budget media release -
"Importantly, our timetable back to a Budget surplus is unchanged from last year."
Joe Hockey, 2014 budget media release -
"It creates a path back to surplus and slashes projections for debt, which means the money that would be wasted on interest payments can now help build the future."
Wayne Swan, 2013 budget speech -
"This discipline gives Australia a responsible pathway back to balance in 2015-16 and surplus by 2016-17."
Joe Hockey, 2012 statement to National press Club -
"Based on the numbers presented last Tuesday night we will achieve a surplus in our first year in office and we will achieve a surplus for every year of our first term."
Wayne Swan, 2012 budget speech -
"This Budget delivers a surplus this coming year, on time, as promised, and surpluses each year after that, strengthening over time."
Wayne Swan, 2011 budget speech -
"We are on track for surplus in 2012‑13, on time, as promised — and this provides the solid foundations for the targeted investments we announce tonight."
Wayne Swan, 2010 budget speech -
"A strategy that will see the budget return to surplus in three years time, three years ahead of schedule, and ahead of every major advanced economy."
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