ASX manages only modest gains for 2014/15

Australian share market has managed a modest 1.2 per cent gain for the 2014/15 financial year, underperforming the booming property sector.

The last week of the financial year was mostly a horror show for Australian investors.

While the stock market managed to finish 2014/15 on a positive note on Tuesday, it posted a pretty flat result for the year.

Here's a guide to how investors fared in the past 12 months.

SHARE MARKET

Last Wednesday the Australian sharemarket was up 5.4 per cent for the financial year, (8.2 per cent including dividends) with 15 out of 21 industry sub-sectors higher.

Less than a week later, it was only 0.4 per cent stronger before recovering to a 1.2 per cent annual gain - well below the Reserve Bank's two per cent cash rate and solid gains in the property sector.

What happened? In a word, Greece.

The birthplace of democracy is an economic basket case and its looming 1.6 billion euro ($A2.34 billion) debt default and euro zone exit shook world markets.

The gains are anaemic after a 12.5 per cent increase in value last year and a 17.3 per cent gain the year before.

SO WHY THE WEAKER YEAR?

After two years of substantially above-average gains, Australia did well to finish ahead at all in 2014/15, CommSec chief economist Craig James says.

"Before this Greek situation really hit the fan our market was looking reasonable in terms of the year," he told AAP.

The market almost breached the 6,000 point level in April for the first time since 2008, when it was up more than 11 per cent for the year.

A year ago market watchers were unsure how the resources sector would play out - but iron ore's pricing dive in 2014/15 underlined that the boom was over.

Combine mining and energy stocks' bad year - as oil prices fell - along with an indifferent performance by the big banks and it was difficult for the ASX to rise.

PROPERTY OUTSHINES SHARES

There is more to investing than the share market, with bonds and property returns better for the second consecutive year.

CommSec found returns on dwellings rose 13.3 per cent and government bonds 6.5 per cent.

Combined capital city property values climbed 7.5 per cent for the year, says CoreLogic RP Data research.

"It is a rare event to get key sectors like residential property, bonds and shares all in positive territory for a year," Mr James said.

"It means that investors had a degree of choice about where to put their funds and would be taking away some of the gains you are likely to see on the sharemarket."

RETIREMENT NEST EGGS

Super funds fared better than the share market but were burnt by a nine per cent fall in shares since the end of April.

The average Australian worker looks set to book a return of 9-9.5 per cent for the year in their balanced growth fund.

"The stronger performers will be those that maintained a relatively high exposure to foreign currency (because of the decline in value of the Australian dollar) and Australian listed property, and a lower exposure to Australian shares, bonds and cash," Chant West director, Warren Chant says.

WHAT NEXT?

A weak share market return for the year, tens of billions of dollars in export earnings lost as the iron ore price fell and poor business confidence would appear to add up to a negative outlook.

Not so, says Mr James.

A long overdue Australian dollar fall of more than 18 per cent from 94.2 US cents a year ago to 76 US cents on Tuesday has helped the economy.

Further falls should mean more normal annual economic growth of three per cent instead of 2.5 per cent, Mr James said.

CommSec predicts the share market will return to 5,800-6,000 point levels before the end of December.

Mr James says the multiplier effects for the economy through current record housing and construction activity can more than make up for the unwinding of the mining boom.

The Australian economy has grown for 23 consecutive years, unemployment of 6.0 per cent is close to the long-term 5-5.5 per cent average, inflation is contained, and small business tax cuts were helping confidence and spending, he said.

"The big picture is pretty good, the degree of growth in the next year or so should be a bit more broad based rather than being focused on one to two sectors as we have had in recent years," he said.

THE NUMBERS TO NOTE

* ASX200 up 1.17 per cent to 5,459 points

* All Ordinaries up 1.28 per cent to 5,451.2 points

* Qantas the best top 200 stock, up 150.4pct

* Arrium the worst top 200 stock, down 80.5pct

(Source: CommSec)


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