Aussie dollar's rally won't last

The Australian dollar rallied to a four month high of 81.63 US cents but analyst don't expect it to stay at those types of levels for too long.

The Australian dollar.

(AAP) Source: AAP

If you're thinking of booking an overseas holiday, get in quick because the Aussie dollar's time above 80 US cents is going to be short lived.

The currency shot up as much as two US cents to a four month high of 81.63 US cents on Thursday on speculation that the US Federal Reserve won't be raising its interest rate this year, after the release of flat retail spending figures.

But LTG GoldRock director Andrew Barnett is certain the Fed will hike its Federal Funds Rate before the end of the year.

"They will raise rates in the US and I think the Australian economy will continue to weaken and I suspect the Aussie dollar to be significantly weaker.

"I think the rally is going to be reasonably short lived," he said.

Mr Barnett is also expecting another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the year, which will also push the local currency lower.

He added that there has been a pattern over the past few years of the Australian dollar losing value between the federal budget and September.

Last year it fell 12 US cents during that time, and in 2013 it lost 15 US cents.

"I don't anticipate that to be any different this year," he said.

OANDA Australia and Asia Pacific senior trader Stephen Innes said the RBA won't be please about the Aussie dollar's rally but doesn't believe it will intervene to push it lower.

"It's equally unlikely bank officials will cut interest rates at the next meeting," he said.

"What we can expect is for the RBA to stick to its usual game plan of talking the currency lower. But if the Aussie continues pressing higher, one should not rule out any aggressive moves by the RBA."

Mr Innes said the economic slowdown in China is also likely to put downward pressure on the Aussie dollar.


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Source: AAP


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