Aust trade position rapidly improving

Rising commodity prices has helped to shrink Australia's trade position to its smallest deficit in almost two years and may soon be in surplus.

A marked improvement in Australia's international trade position came as global financial markets grew increasingly jittery about next week's US presidential election.

New figures on Thursday showed Australia's trade balance of goods and services shrank to a $1.2 billion deficit in September, its smallest since December 2014.

It compared with a revised $1.9 billion deficit in August and economists' forecasts for a $1.7 billion deficit, and was the result of a two per cent rise in exports and a one per cent decline in imports.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said the much-improved trade position was the result of a big 12 per cent lift in coal exports, as well as large rises in metals and other non-rural exports.

"The spot price of coal rose spectacularly over September and has basically been on a rampage since late July," he said.

"The news should be even better in next month's figures - there's a good chance that a surplus is posted."

The monthly trade balance has been in deficit since December 2011, bar four months between December 2013 and March 2014.

Mr Aird expects the terms of trade will rise when the national accounts for the September quarter are released in early December and anticipates a further rise will be clocked up over the December quarter.

"This will deliver a highly desired boost to national income, which will largely show up in higher profits in the resource sector and a lift in government revenue," he said.

Treasury will use the results from the national accounts for the basis of its forecasts when the mid-year budget review is released in mid-December.

The data helped to lift the Australian dollar and appeared to give fleeting support to shares, which are otherwise bogged down in renewed global market volatility.

The S&P 500 index on Wall Street fell for the seventh straight day on Wednesday (US time), its longest streak in about five years as the presidential race appears increasingly close.

Opposition finance spokesman Jim Chalmers is concerned about markets being spooked by the possibility of a Donald Trump win in the November 8 US presidential election, given his incoherent economic policies.

"If Donald Trump wins the election we will do our best for a bad situation and that goes for people in the economy as well as people in the broader community," Dr Chalmers told Sky News on Thursday.

Liberal backbencher Tony Pasin was more optimistic, believing if Mr Trump does win the election the impact on financial markets would be short-lived.

"I expect if Trump is successful there will be a sharp selldown but, as with Brexit, we will see a pretty swift return," he told Sky News.


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Source: AAP



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