The shock selection of Tim Paine as wicketkeeper has highlighted confusion around the Australian side ahead of the Ashes, according to Shane Warne, who believes England are more settled.
The retired spin-bowling great also believes Australia's pace attack of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins won't stir up as much fear in England as much as Mitchell Johnson did in 2013-14.
Paine and Shaun Marsh are the surprise call-ups for Brisbane on Thursday, while Cameron Bancroft has unseated out-of-form opening batsman Matt Renshaw.
Paine replaces Tasmanian teammate Matthew Wade behind the stumps, seven years after his last Test, while 34-year-old Marsh earns his eighth recall amid an absence of No.6 prospects displaying worthy form.
Warne said while both sides relied on too few players, Australia's home advantage and superior bowling attack would ultimately prove overwhelming for England.
But he said the series would be close.
"Australia look confused. They're picking wicketkeepers that aren't even keeping for their state," Warne said on Friday, in reference to Wade taking the gloves ahead of Paine in Sheffield Shield.
"England, I think at the moment, are just going along nicely. They're just doing their business.
"I think England are in a better situation going into that first Test than what Australia are.
"England have got a few very good cricketers. Chris Woakes is very underrated. Moeen Ali, I don't think he plays the short ball very well but he's a dangerous cricketer at No.7. He's bowling well; he attacks with the bat.
"But being at home, you think that Australia have an advantage. But I think this will be a super close series. It comes down to the bowling mainly. I think Australia's bowlers are excellent."
Former Test wicketkeeper Ian Healy said it was unusual for Paine to gain selection while not being Tasmania's first-choice gloveman for the past two years.
But he backed the 32-year-old to perform soundly at Test level.
"They're catapulting him in (but) I think he'll be right. His technique is good enough to withstand a lack of preparation," Healy said.
"He should be right. He does have a technique that's serviceable."
Johnson terrorised the visitors' batsman four years ago in Australia's 5-0 domination to take 37 wickets at venomous pace, but Warne was doubtful of a similar display by Australia in this series.
"At the moment, the biggest shift over the last few years is they don't fear Australia anymore," Warne said.
"England no longer fear Australia and haven't for a long time and, hence, that's why they can beat Australia."
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