IN BRIEF
- Experts warn younger people with chronic conditions could face new barriers to accessing free COVID vaccines.
- Australia has yet to see a clear winter COVID peak in 2026, despite cases rising over the past fortnight.
Australia is preparing to wind back its universal COVID-19 vaccination program, but experts warn the change shouldn't be interpreted as a sign the virus is no longer a public health concern.
From 1 October, the National COVID-19 Vaccine Program will transition into the National Immunisation Program (NIP), with free COVID-19 vaccines becoming limited to people considered most at risk of severe disease.
But professor Adrian Esterman, chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Adelaide, said the new eligibility rules could leave some people vulnerable.
"There are lots and lots of people with diabetes, with other chronic conditions, autoimmune conditions, that would be hundreds of thousands of people who were getting a free shot and aren't getting one now," Esterman said.
The change comes as the latest federal government surveillance data shows COVID-19 cases increased over the past fortnight.
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However, experts say 2026 has been unusual, with Australia yet to experience the clear winter COVID peak seen in previous years.
SBS News has contacted the Department of Health for comment, but it previously told the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners that COVID-19 is now endemic in Australia and that vaccination policy should focus on maintaining protection among those most vulnerable to severe disease.
Which Australians can still get free COVID vaccines?
From 1 October, free COVID-19 vaccination under the NIP will be available to adults aged 75 and over every six months, and adults aged 65 to 74 every 12 months.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 50 to 74 will also remain eligible for an annual dose, as will adults aged 18 and over who are severely immunocompromised.
People outside those groups will still be able to access COVID-19 vaccines, but may have to pay for them.
Catherine Bennett, chair of Epidemiology at Deakin University, said the change should be viewed alongside Australia's broader vaccination program.
She said COVID-19 was now behaving differently from earlier in the pandemic, with population immunity helping to reduce severe illness.
"It's important that this is actually now being taken into a national immunisation program because that means that we have a sustained commitment to COVID alongside the other respiratory diseases," Bennett said.
She told SBS News that the lower vaccination rates among healthy adults had not translated into a comparable increase in severe disease.
Are the people most at risk getting vaccinated?
Esterman said a bigger concern was whether Australians who most need protection were actually taking up the vaccines already available to them.
He said just 25 per cent of people aged 75 and over had received a COVID-19 vaccine in the previous six months, while only 30 per cent had received one in the past year.
Among people aged 65 to 74, uptake was around 19 per cent over the past year.
"The issue here is the people at the highest risk aren't actually taking the vaccine," Esterman said.
He said the change could also leave some younger people with chronic health conditions without access to free vaccination.
People under 65 with conditions including diabetes, chronic lung disease or autoimmune conditions may not meet the new definition of severe immunocompromise, despite potentially facing a greater risk from COVID-19.
Esterman said healthcare and aged-care workers could also face new barriers, particularly if they are expected to pay for vaccination themselves or rely on their employers to provide it.
His concern is that cost and access could further discourage people who would otherwise benefit from a booster.
"We've got groups who desperately need the COVID vaccine missing out," he said.
What does Australia's COVID vaccine change mean for public health?
Experts emphasised that communication around the change would be important.
Esterman warned that winding back universal access could reinforce the perception that COVID-19 is no longer a significant health concern.
He said that would be a "very poor message" to send, particularly given the virus continues to cause serious illness and deaths.
Bennett agreed that COVID should not simply disappear from the public health conversation, but said the focus should now be on clearly communicating who remains at greatest risk and ensuring they know they are still entitled to free vaccination.
She said the transition to the NIP could actually help by putting COVID vaccination alongside other routine immunisations, rather than treating it as a separate pandemic-era program.
States and territories will take responsibility for ordering, distributing and reporting COVID-19 vaccines under the new arrangements.
Bennett said having the Australian Centre for Disease Control provide national guidance would be important to ensure messaging remains consistent, even if individual states respond differently to local outbreaks.
What Australia's 2026 COVID case trends reveal
Australia has recorded 64,357 COVID-19 cases so far this year, which is 56 per cent fewer than the 146,232 cases notified over the same period in 2025.
But the most unusual feature of 2026 has been the absence of a clear winter peak.
Bennett said that could partly reflect the same COVID variant continuing to circulate, allowing people's existing immunity to remain effective against it.
The variant NB.1.8.1 has dominated in Australia, while new variants have not produced the dramatic shifts in transmission seen earlier in the pandemic.
Esterman similarly expects COVID to continue producing smaller waves rather than the large peaks seen in previous years.
He said a major new wave would be more likely if there was a significant genetic shift in the virus.
Could Australia face another COVID wave in 2026?
Neither expert expects an immediate major COVID wave as Australia heads into spring and summer, although both say the virus will continue circulating.
Bennett said a new variant could still trigger an increase in cases, but summer generally brings lower transmission because people spend more time outdoors and have better ventilation.
For now, experts say the challenge may be less about preparing for another pandemic-scale wave and more about ensuring people at greatest risk do not become complacent.
As Australia moves away from universal COVID vaccination, experts agree that as the virus changes, so too must the way the country communicates about it.
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