The Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) predicts Australia will almost double their London Olympics gold-medal haul in Rio, but chef de mission Kitty Chiller thinks the team can do even better.
The AOC's annual benchmark study predicts Australia will scoop 13 gold medals at the 2016 Games, up from the disappointing seven won in 2012 - the country's worst performance since Barcelona 1992.
Based on current world rankings from the most recent international benchmark competitions such as world championships, the study says 37 medals will be won including 14 silver and 10 bronze.
Such a result would place Australia equal seventh overall with Japan (37 medals, 18 gold) and reverse Australia's downward trend since Sydney 2000.
China would reign supreme with 97 medals, including 39 gold, while the United States (84 medals, 35 gold) and Russia (69 medals, 25 gold) are well ahead of the next-nearest rivals Great Britain (48 medals, 15 gold), Germany (41 medals, 13 gold) and France (38 medals, 15 gold).
Chiller admitted Olympics don't always follow on-paper predictions, but said the report was a good sign for the AOC's ambitious top-five target.
"In respect of our objective ... it is absolutely realistic," Chiller said on Wednesday.
"And these benchmark events are a very good indicator of what happens at an Olympic Games."
Much of the positive change since London has come in swimming, its seven golds at August's world championships in Kazan a vast improvement from the solitary 2012 Games win by the women's 4x100m relay team.
There could be more on the table when taking into account the absence of James Magnussen, who withdrew from the world titles following a shoulder reconstruction.
The 24-year-old dual world champion is in recovery and will be out for gold after he was pipped by 0.01 seconds in the 100m freestyle at London.
Chiller expected strong results from the swimmers but said the Olympic team can't just rely on the pool, calling on other sports to step up and win medals across 20 disciplines.
Cycling is tipped as Australia's next-best performer, with eight medals predicted, including three gold.
Golds are also expected for Australia in rowing (one), sailing (one) and men's hockey (one).
Sally Pearson is another strong contender who does not feature, having not competed at the athletics world championships in Beijing after severely hurting her wrist.
The women's rugby sevens team are also predicted to win silver but are now ranked No.1 in the world, while world No.2 golfer Jason Day does not feature in the report and Australia's rowers underperformed in this year's world titles.
"I think I could name on paper now 20 athletes or teams who are genuine gold-medal chances," Chiller said.
"Olympic Games never go according to paper - you're going to win some and lose some.
"But we have the depth and the talent there that if the process is looked after on the way, and people do all the things they need to do in the next 233 days, then absolutely we have the potential to do even better."
