Australia is in danger of having to mothball research projects in Antarctica because of its shrinking budget, a new study warns.
The Australian Strategic Police Institute (ASPI) paper says Australia claims 42 per cent of Antarctica, an area the size of all Australia less Queensland, with an overall budget of just $169 million in 2013-14.
That was an eight per cent reduction on the previous year.
"A continued downward trajectory in budget allocations might well lead to closure or mothballing of stations, reduced scientific gains and a diminished standing in Antarctic affairs, it says.
Australian researchers can't visit much of the Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT) because of shortage of equipment such as ski-equipped aircraft.
The air link from Australia to Antarctica is unreliable even in mid-summer while the icebreaker Aurora Australis is approaching end of life.
The paper says the politics of Antarctica are starting to heat up.
One UK analyst Professor Klaus Dodds has warned of looming crises over sovereignty claims, commercial fishing, tourism, the rise of China and mineral exploitation.
ASPI said if that was to be believed, Australia could see a breakdown of the Antarctic Treaty, our territorial claim disputed, rampant illegal fishing, irreparable environmental damage and a rush for oil, gas and minerals.
"When it comes to our interest in Antarctica, Australia had better use it or we risk losing it in what will be a more competitive strategic world in coming decades," it says.
"The credibility of our claims will erode in lockstep with the erosion of our capacity to service our research stations by sea and air."
On the plus side, the new coalition government has promised it will develop a 20-year strategic plan to address how Australia can remain, engaged, active and visible.
ASPI said Australia should be an Antarctic leader not a follower.
"If we're fair dinkum about pursuing Antarctic interests, we need to be active in Antarctica. But our present capability means we can't match what others are doing in our territory, let alone lead," it said.
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