Australia vulnerable to shocks: Moody's

Moody's Investors Service is concerned that the Turnbull government's budget is vulnerable to external shocks.

A global rating agency is concerned that the Turnbull government will find it difficult to reduce spending, leading to wider deficits for longer than it forecast in this week's budget.

There was some deterioration in projected deficits in the 2016/17 budget compared to expectations made in December, but Treasurer Scott Morrison stuck to his previous forecast for a surplus in 2020/21.

The deficit for the 2016/17 financial year is now put at $37.1 billion compared to $33.7 billion in the mid-year budget review.

"A slow pace of fiscal consolidation will leave public finances vulnerable to negative shocks, particularly to a potential market downturn in the housing sector and a reversal in current favourable external financing conditions," Moody's Investors Service said.

Last month Moody's warned that Australia's triple-A rating with a stable outlook could be at risk if there was a further delay in returning to surplus and debt continues to grow.

In a new report, the agency notes that since the budget returned to deficit in 2009, debt has risen sharply and faster than other triple-A rated economies, albeit coming from a lower level.

The 22.2 percentage-point rise in Australian government debt since 2009 as a proportion to GDP is similar to that seen in Finland, which has a negative outlook, and larger than the US on a stable outlook.

However, it says the economy has shown resilience, forecasting growth of 2.5 per cent for this year and next.

While this was lower than prior to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, it is somewhat faster than in many other advanced economies.


Share

2 min read

Published

Source: AAP



Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world