Geelong has emerged as Australia's top regional pick for movers, according to a new report, as tree-changers leave capital cities at above pre-pandemic levels.
The bayside region in Victoria has become the most popular place for capital city escapees to settle, accounting for a share of 7.4 per cent of net migration from capital cities.
It marginally dethroned Queensland's Sunshine Coast, with a share of 7.3 per cent, according to the latest Regional Movers Index by the Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank.
Rounding out the top five regional picks were Lake Macquarie, NSW; Moorabool, Victoria; and Maitland, NSW.
The Regional Movers Index, which uses Commonwealth Bank data, also shows most tree-changers are coming from Sydney and Melbourne.
"The nation's love affair with regional living is showing no signs of abating with 25 per cent more people moving from capital cities to the regions, than back in the opposite direction," Regional Australia Institute CEO Liz Ritchie said.
The number of capital city folk moving to Australia's regions each quarter has remained elevated since the onset of the pandemic through to the post-COVID-19 era, according to the report — at around 20.5 per cent higher than the pre-COVID average level of quarterly migration.
However, a demographer and social researcher said that might not be entirely accurate and is at odds with other national population data.
"I don't think we're seeing a massive exodus of people from city areas to regional areas. And with that, I don't think we are going to start seeing people establish themselves as a first priority in these regional areas," Dr Liz Allen, from the Australian National University's Centre for Social Research and Policy, told SBS News.
"That said, it is no surprise that regional areas like Greater Geelong are going to flourish because for a lot of the first home buyers, their most affordable areas are in these fringe areas."
According to property data firm CoreLogic, Geelong's median house price was $715,574 in April, while in the Sunshine Coast it was $1,065,140.
Regional growing pains
Greater Geelong is Australia's largest regional council area, home to more than 282,000 people.
Its rise on the regional migration leaderboard reflects a rise in popularity in regional Victoria as a whole, according to the report.
A state breakdown of net migration in terms of the share of net migration out of capital cities and net migration into regional areas. Source: SBS News
"Victoria is a very attractive place. The vital social and economic infrastructure seems to be really setting the right notes for residents there," Allen said.
"But that footprint is increasing at an alarming rate and in fact we're seeing the rates of increase and population growth occurring the fastest in regional areas ... which spells some really difficult times for policymakers."
Geelong, in particular, is experiencing significant growing pains according to the council's draft five-year plan.
Like most regional areas, it's confronting a housing shortage, ageing infrastructure and congestion as it expands.
"Greater Geelong is one of Australia's fastest-growing regions, and managing this expansion will be crucial to our success over the coming decades," the plan says.
To support the demand for housing, the Victorian government has set a target of an extra 128,600 dwellings in Greater Geelong by 2051.
The number of capital-city folk moving into Australia's regions each quarter is overall higher the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Source: SBS News
The region, which had a population of 78,000 in 2016, is on track to exceed 100,000 people by the end of 2026, with six new residents arriving every day, according to a council report.
"We've got to be really careful here," Allen said.
"We have an opportunity to examine what kind of footprint — in both an environmental and social way — we want for this country.
"We can't just have growth going on without us understanding what needs are for people in areas."
— With additional reporting by Australian Associated Press
