The price of Australian beef and cattle is set to soar for the next two years as the national herd hits a 20-year low.
The latest quarterly update from Meat & Livestock Australia says the nation's "severely depleted" cattle supply has plummeted by about three million head to 26.2 million in the past three years, with herd numbers in western Queensland and NSW shrinking by up to 40 per cent.
Slaughter rates in the eastern states are also expected to drop from the record highs of two years ago to a predicted 120,000 in 2017, the same level as 2006 when the industry was trying to rebuild herd numbers.
MLA market information manager Ben Thomas says local cattle prices are currently "moving in a different direction to those globally".
However the reduction in slaughter rates will help ensure more calves are born next year, with increased beef production to follow in 2018.
"All things considered, it is unlikely that Australian cattle prices will return to pre-2013 levels, but rather establish a new level - somewhere in between existing long-term averages and the current record highs," he said in a statement.
"In the meantime though, there will be extremely tough competition for the limited numbers available."
Above-average carcass weight is expected to soften the blow to beef and veal production, while the impact on graziers in the industry has been reduced by low grain prices worldwide.
Mr Thomas said a 24 per cent drop in beef exports was linked to mounting competition over global market share, but higher-valued chilled beef had "encouragingly" only dropped 12 per cent compared to 23 per cent for frozen products.
Low cattle numbers hindered live exports this year, with a decline of 1.05 million propped up only by a localised increase to the herd in Western Australia.
Share
